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NCAA Tournament Round 1 Information

2008-03-19T13:09:00.000-07:00

Without question, the NCAA Tournament is the best sporting event in the nation. If you're not a fan of March Madness, then something is seriously wrong! College basketball's National Championship is at stake and 65 teams know that the first to six wins will walk away with the prize.

College coaches break this tournament down into two-game affairs. Win the first two and then move on to the Sweet 16. Win the next two and then skip to the Final Four. Win those two and you're the National Champion. As a handicapper, I've taken a similar approach and broken down the tournament and looked at each round individually. My discoveries have been profitable and well worth the time invested.

Below you'll find an inside look at the first round of the NCAA Tournament and the breakdown of how the seeded teams perform against each other. These games tip off on Thursday and Friday, March 20th and 21st.

There are also four very solid Round 1 Tournament Situations that are in play as well. Best of luck in the first round of the NCAA Tournament men.

Please note: All records below are from the 1990-91 season unless noted.

NCAA TOURNAMENT SEED INFORMATION

#1 SEED vs #16 SEED = 68-0 SU and 37-30-1 ATS

Key Trends

1. If #1 seed is off a SU and ATS win .5? 20-12 ATS .5? Play ON Kansas and Memphis.

2. If #1 seed has a won/loss percentage =.833 and <.933 .5? 29-15-1 ATS .5? Play ON Kansas and UCLA (21-6 ATS if #1 seed of BB SU wins .5? Jayhawks and Bruins apply.)

#2 SEED vs #15 SEED = 64-4 SU and 29-37-2 ATS

Key Trends

1. If #2 seed covered by 10 points or more last .5? 5-8-1 ATS .5? Play AGAINST No Plays This Year.

2. If #2 seed owns a won/loss percentage = .865 .5? 5-10-1 ATS .5? Play AGAINST Tennessee.

3. If #2 seed is favored by 18 or more: 16-25-1 ATS, Play AGAINST Duke and Tennessee.

#3 SEED vs #14 SEED = 59-9 SU and 34-33-1 ATS

Key Trends

1. If #3 seed is off a SU loss as a favorite .5? 18-7-1 ATS: Play ON Xavier and Louisville (13-1-1 ATS if #3 seed lost to the line by 10 points or more last, Xavier and Louisville BOTH apply).

2. If #3 seed enters off back-to-back SU wins: 4-14 ATS (Since .5?93) .5? Play AGAINST Wisconsin.

#4 SEED vs #13 SEED = 50-5-13 SU and 39-28-1 ATS

Key Trends

1. If #4 seed is a favorite of .5?9 or less, 25-12 ATS: Play ON Washington State and Vanderbilt.

2. If #4 seed is off a SU loss .5? 30-10-1 ATS (Since .5?93) .5? Play ON (19-2 ATS if #4 seed is favored by -9 or less .5? Washington State and Vanderbilt BOTH apply).

#5 SEED vs #12 SEED = 46-22 SU and 35-33 ATS

Key Trends

1. If #5 seed owns a won/loss percentage = .710 .5? 17-9 ATS .5? Play ON No Plays This Year.

2. If #5 seed is favored by -5' or more: 22-14 ATS, Play ON Notre Dame, Michigan State and Clemson.

#6 SEED vs #11 SEED = 49-19 SU and 39-28-1 ATS

Key Trends:

1. If #6 seed enters off a SU loss of 13 points or more .5? 10-3 ATS .5? Play ON Oklahoma.

#7 SEED vs #10 SEED .5? 39-29 SU and 38-29-1 ATS

Key Trends

1. If #7 seed is an underdog .5? 12-6-1 ATS .5? Play ON Gonzaga.

2. If #7 seed owns a won/loss percentage = .680 .5? 22-10-1 ATS .5? Play ON West Virginia, Gonzaga, Miami FL and Butler.

#8 SEED vs #9 SEED = 31-37 SU and 31-36-1 ATS

Key Trends

1. If #8 seed is off back-to-back SU wins: 3-6 ATS .5? Play AGAINST UNLV.

NCAA TOURNAMENT SUPER SITUATIONS

1. #10 seeds or higher that are favored in the first round of the NCAA Tournament are a wallet breaking 9-17-1 ATS. Play AGAINST Davidson.

2. NCAA Tournament 1st Round teams priced as a favorite of .5?5 to an underdog with a won/loss percentage of =.667 are a shocking 16-33-2 ATS if they.5?re entering the tourney off back-to-back ATS wins. Play AGAINST Georgia, Temple, San Diego and Davidson. (Make that 6-24-1 ATS if their opponent checks in off a SU loss .5? Georgia, Temple, San Diego and Davidson ALL apply).

3. NCAA Tournament 1st Round teams entering off back-to-back 15 point (or more) SU wins are a woeful 11-19 ATS. Play AGAINST Fullerton State, Memphis and Butler.

4. Favorites of -14.5 or less in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tournament are a woeful 7-22 ATS provided they enter off a 3-0 SU and ATS run (or better). Play AGAINST Pittsburgh, Drake and Butler. (Make that 0-8 ATS if our 1st Round favorite won by 17 points or more last: Drake).

College Hoops: Feeling the Pressure

2008-03-19T13:08:00.000-07:00

It may be mid-March, but I am reminded of Game 7 of the 1988 NLCS between the Dodgers and Mets. The Mets had won 100 games, leading from wire to wire, and were expected to win the World Series. But they fumbled and bumbled Game 7 behind a slew of second-inning errors and lost the pennant 6-0 to the Dodgers. After the game, a baseball analyst wrote, "The Dodgers wanted to win Game 7. The Mets HAD to win it." His point was that the pressure was on the team that was expected to win. This is something to keep in mind the next few weeks with college basketball's tournament play taking place all around us.

Many teams will be heavy favorites in their conference tournaments and the NCAA tourney. But go back and look at the history -- the favored #1 seeds don't all meet in the Final Four, do they? In fact, you'll find countless examples of the top team getting knocked off in both the NCAA tourney and the conference play. Sometimes the pressure is all focused on the favored team, which feels it HAS to win. This can cause tightness and sloppy play with clubs that can't handle the extra focus now that it's a "new" season with the whole country tuned in.

It can be a breeze, for example, to win your final 10 regular season games playing against teams like Towson, James Madison and William & Mary, but all of a sudden the competition gets tougher AND you often play three games in three nights in March. That's quite a difference from putting it in cruise control as the regular season winds down.

Other times, there can be a bunch of very strong teams that finished second and third in the division laying in the weeds. The No. 1 seed gets all the attention, but the talented No. 2 and 3 seeded teams are waiting patiently, plotting for their turn -- with no focus on them -- to strike at the favorite.

If you look back at the regular season meetings, you might be surprised to find out how evenly the teams played. I had a play on big underdog Penn State when they played Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. In my pregame analysis I noted, "For some unknown reason the Illini have taken money all year without any merit. They are 12-18-1 ATS and have proven over and over again that they are a team that simply doesn't play up to its ability. On the season Illinois is 13-18 straight up while Penn State is 15-15. Yet the Illini are a substantial favorite here.

Maybe it has something to do with how they match up with the Nittany Lions? These two faced each other twice this season with Penn State winning both meetings. Just as expected the Nittany Lions were substantial underdogs in both meetings catching 5 and 8 points in the process. Maybe the reason why Illinois is favored is that they enter the conference tournament playing the far better ball? That's not it either as Illinois is on a 5-14 run while Penn State has won 12 of their last 23 games.

What is a legitimate reason for Illinois to be favored is that Penn State will be playing without forward Jamelle Cornley who averages 12 points and 6 rebounds a game. But the Nittany Lions just beat Indiana without him in the lineup. Is Penn State better with a healthy Cornley in the lineup? No doubt about it, but the generous point spread more than makes up for his absence. The underdog has cashed 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series and Penn State has cashed to the tune of 6-1-1 in those meetings. In what looks to be a low scoring game the underdog is a gift, play Penn State." The Lions got the money with ease in a 64-63 slow-down game.

Clearly, March tourney play is a very different time of the year. Some teams with veteran players who've been here before understand the changes and pressure. But other teams, young ones, or ones that are off poor seasons, might not have as much experience and be more likely to choke up or play sloppy ball when the games mean far more in importance. That's a big part of why upsets are so much a part of March tourney play.

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College Hoops Challenges in the Tourney

2008-03-18T13:23:00.000-07:00

Last week I talked about the weird year that fans were witnessing in college basketball. It was as if we had "A" teams, and "C" teams, but nobody in between. If you watched the conference tournaments, you saw exactly what I was talking about. In fact, all the media could talk about on the first day of action was how all the mediocre bubble teams kept losing!

This odd class structure is going to create some challenges for handicappers who don't react to the changing times.

*There are several teams in the Dance who wouldn't have been good enough to make it in past seasons. It's surprising how many teams kind of backed in this year by default.

*There are also a few teams who were good a month ago, but are now playing their worst basketball of the season.

*There are some teams who won their way into the Dance by playing way over their heads last weekend. They're about to fall back to earth because you can't play over your head forever.

In a way that I don't recall ever seeing before, this is a year where picking winners is going to about focusing on the relatively small number of teams who can go out and execute on demand. A lot of offenses in the tournament have been blowing hot and cold lately. A lot of defenses in the tournament only seem to look good when opponents are missing all of their treys. Who can YOU find who will beat expectations because they will go out and get the job done?

Here are some tips:

*Look over conference tournament boxscores and find the teams that consistently played good defense. Some teams grabbed victories where they were allowing too high a shooting percentage, or not forcing many turnovers. Their luck will run out in the Dance. Impact defenses will force the action this week, and will make their own luck to a degree. Be sure to go back two weeks to study the mid-major events too. If darkhorses are going to spring from the gate...it's going to be darkhorses who play defense.

*As you're studying those boxscores, look at the offensive turnover category. I talked about this last week you'll recall. This is a great stat for evaluating how well a team executes its offense (or how poorly). In a possession by possession tournament game, this stat will often be the tie-breaker that determines who wins and covers. There's an old saw about how important great guard play is in the postseason. I tend to put more weight on the inside game myself. But, I do pay attention to guard play...and studying the turnover category is the best way to do that.

*Pay close attention to how teams are "trending" lately. Anybody can have a hot shooting game. If a team is playing well over 8-10 games, then they're much more likely to have something good going. If a team has slumped down the stretch, they're not likely to suddenly find their confidence in the Dance. This worked out well in the conference tournaments, as a few slumping teams continued their recent spirals. The oddsmakers have been particularly weak at adjusting to recent form in my opinion. I want to emphasize though that I'm not talking about the last 2-3 games here. Some teams played over their heads last week. I'm looking to invest in teams who have picked up the pace over their last 8-10 games.

Success in the conference tournaments was very much tied to execution on both sides of the ball, and the direction of recent form. I don't see why that's going to change now.

Of course, some tried and true methods will still apply:

*Be wary of laying a lot of points in the first round with any team who cut down the nets this past weekend. It can be hard to get up for a weak opponent in front of a half empty arena when you just had a draining string of performances capped by a big celebration. If one of the teams you respect because of offensive and defensive execution is in this situation, wait until deeper in the tournament to back them.

*Look to take strong teams who had their conference tournaments end earlier than expected. There are fewer of those this year than in the past. But you will still find some top teams with a chip on their shoulder. That's who you want to back in the first weekend. I'd say the BEST teams to take are those who have shown clear execution strength this season and also have that chip on their shoulders.

*Look to take Overs in games where up-tempo teams are playing each other. Tennessee and Long Beach State had a true track meet last season in that kind of matchup. The combination of fast tempo, tournament energy, and a 4-5 day layoff really energizes this kind of affair.

*Look to take Unders in games where slow-down teams are playing each other in afternoon tips. Some of the most boring games every year involve this kind of slow-motion meeting in a dead arena.

Proper handicapping is always a combination of applying time-proven approaches while having a a recognition of what's happening NOW. This will be more true than ever during the first week of the NCAA tournament.

The oddsmakers showed clear weakness in the conference tournaments trying to deal with the new dynamic I've discussed. They don't have it figured out yet!

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NBA Deadwood Packing it In

2008-03-17T13:56:00.000-07:00

Last week I wrote about how the Rockets had won 18 in a row and it's best not to try and figure out when a hot team is going to cold. The smart handicapper rides the hot streaks. So what happened? Houston rips off 4 more wins in a row, going 3-1 against the spread. Again, if you tried to guess when the Rockets are going to go into a tailspin and wager against them, you would have continued to lose your shirt.

Now let's flip-flop that wagering advice into something just as practical, and profitable, this time of the season -- wagering against teams that have packed it in. The casual sports bettor often looks at favorites. But remember, wagering on live dogs or against bad teams that aren't going to cover pay the same as favorites that get there.

That's especially true as we come down the home stretch of the NBA regular season. This week Warriors coach Don Nelson said, "Welcome to the NBA. There are no bad teams in the NBA." Don was being diplomatic. The fact is there are a busload of bad teams. There are numerous squads that are going nowhere except the draft lottery. Take a careful look inside those squads. Are they a happy team? Do the players want to give 100% each night? Have they tuned out the coach? Are they playing for offseason contracts, rather than a team-oriented, winning attitude?

All of these questions should be on the lips of serious handicappers this time of the season. Let's take a look at the Seattle Supersonics. The Sonics had a brutal week, going 0-3 SU/ATS. The defense was a joke allowing 111, 121 and 168 points! The defense has been a problem for a while and they are riding a 7-2 run over the total. They've also lost 12 of 13 games.

Sunday's astounding 168-116 loss at Denver spoke volumes about their defensive interest, or should I say lack of. The Nuggets shot 60%, drilled 16 of 31 three- point attempts and fell just 16 points shy of the team record. That's even more incredible for those of you who remember the run-and-gun Doug Moe teams of the 1980s that didn't care a lick for defense. For the record, the previous team record for regulation points was 163 against San Antonio on Jan. 11, 1984. The Nuggets' franchise record for points came in a 186-184 triple-overtime loss to Detroit on Dec. 13, 1983. But that was a different era -- and a triple OT game!

Sunday, the SuperSonics gave up an NBA season-high 48 points in the first quarter and trailed by 19 after the first 12 minutes. The Nuggets set an NBA record with 49 fast-break points. "We get beat that badly, there's no excuse for that," Sonics coach P.J. Carlesimo said. "It matters a lot because we're professionals and we're trying to compete and we didn't compete." This is a situation to watch closely. Carlesimo is a screamer and already has a reputation for players tuning him out or turning on him. It's a situation that could offer a number of upcoming go-against spots.

And speaking of go-against spots, how about those LA Clippers? If the Titanic were an NBA team in 2008, it would be the Clippers. Sam Cassell has already abandoned ship. The Clippers appear to be going through the motions on a 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS run. In a 119-109 OT loss to Washington, the Clippers started their 29th lineup of the season and were fresh off losses by 22 and 24 points. Once regulation was over, the Clippers, in the fourth game of a five-game trip, had little left. Their only wins the last three weeks are against miserable Miami (by one point) and against the struggling Kings -- in OT.

The Grizzlies are another team that has packed in the season. Memphis has dropped 17 straight road games by an average margin of 13 points and has not won on the road since defeating Indiana on Jan. 2. Memphis is currently on a 1-13 SU, 2-12 ATS run overall.

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Keep in mind that the Grizzlies recently have switched to the smallest lineup combination yet. Against Golden State, with center Darko Milicic out due to a sore right foot, coach Marc Iavaroni started point guards Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry alongside Mike Miller and Rudy Gay with Hakim Warrick at center. The Griz finished with Juan Carlos Navarro on the floor in place of Conley. That's a quick lineup, but a small, young one.

As long as we're talking about teams giving up on the season, you have to bring up the NY Knicks. The Knicks are on a 1-8 SU, 2-6-1 ATS run. They are also going with a youth movement. The team announced that Eddy Curry would have arthroscopic surgery on his knee that will probably sideline him for the rest of the season. On Sunday, the Knicks were without Quentin Richardson, who decided to rest his sore right wrist. That meant the Knicks' youngsters would again receive a hefty amount of playing time. Some of those minutes also came at the expense of a healthy Zach Randolph.

In Sunday's game, Randolph Morris finished with 8 points in 18 minutes, while Wilson Chandler (4 points), Renaldo Balkman (9 points) and Mardy Collins (7 points) also played significant minutes, a trend Isaiah Thomas said would continue as the season winds to a close. Another trend to keep tabs on is that the Knicks continue to be a terrible defensive team, at 12-4-1 over the total the last 17 games. This is a great time of the season for teams on the playoff bubble and for sports bettors to go against teams that have packed it in.

Assessing NBA Injuries

2008-03-17T13:52:00.000-07:00

Injuries are a part of all sports. For serious sports bettors, it's essential to keep a close eye on basketball injuries. That's especially true this time of the year, with college basketball tournaments in full swing and NBA teams fighting for division titles and postseason positioning. Injuries affect teams differently. This was evident with the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade is going to sit the rest of the season to rehab his left knee. A four-time All-Star, Wade will have missed 91 games to injuries during his five-year career. He will have missed at least 30 games to injuries each of the past two seasons. It's also the right move, as this is a lost season for the Heat.

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Even through the injuries, Wade still was one of the most productive players in the league. He ranked fifth in scoring at 24.6 points a game and also averaged 6.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds in 51 games. It's not yet clear how this might influence Miami's spread marks. After the trade for Shawn Marion, Miami went small-ball with an uptempo attack, going 5-4-1 over the total after a 6-3 under run. It's essential to keep track of how injuries influence a team's style, as well as straight up wins and losses.

One team that hasn't been affected by a key injury is Houston, at least not yet. Houston lost star center Yao Ming after a 12-game win streak. Then they won another 7 in a row (7-0 ATS)! Clearly there is far more at work here than one star player.

Houston is motivated, one of the top teams in the West. They play magnificent defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA and tops in the West. When teams lose key players like this, be sure and look to see if they have something else to fall back on, like depth or defense. The Rockets also have outstanding role players and a second star player in Tracy McGrady.

The Rockets actually began their transformation in late December when McGrady missed 11 games due to a knee injury. They won seven of the first nine. From there a new team emerged, with Rafer Alston, rookie Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Shane Battier contributing. They stepped in when McGrady was out, and now they are doing it with Ming on the shelf.

Other times, teams aren't as well prepared. Since there are so few players in basketball as compared to football, the loss of any one player from the starting five means a 20% change in the lineup. This can affect not only offense or defense, but team chemistry, which takes months to develop. If a coach is counting on a role player to play defense and pull down nine rebounds a game, if that player is out he has to find someone else to plug in, which, depending on the bench, isn't always easy to do.

Think back a year ago when the Boston Celtics lost star Paul Pierce: The Green went on a horrendous 18-game losing streak. The Celtics won just two of 24 games when Pierce was out with foot and elbow injuries. Despite the long skid, the Celtics were installed as a 5-point favorite over Milwaukee the day Pierce came back. Many sports bettors were thinking, "How can a team that has lost 18 in a row be a 5-point chalk?" The Celtics fell behind 32-19, but ended up winning easily 117-97. The leading scorer? Pierce with 32 points.

As we saw with Houston, losing one player doesn't automatically mean that a team will fall apart. A team like Boston last season was extremely young, and fell apart when Pierce went down, the lone veteran and team leader. This season, the Celtics are far deeper and more experienced, with Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. When Garnett missed several weeks last month with a rib injury, the Celtics continued to play well.

People forget that a year ago the Houston Rockets lost Ming for ten weeks with a foot injury, yet played very good basketball and didn't fall apart. The Rockets still had McGrady and played outstanding defense under then Head Coach Jeff Van Gundy.

From a handicapping perspective, it's essential to examine each team's strengths and weaknesses and gauge how much they will miss, if at all, a key player. The Clippers, for instance, have been ravaged by injuries the last two seasons and have fallen apart. A year ago, point guard Shaun Livingston blew his knee out while veteran Sam Cassell was in and out of the lineup battling injuries.

Instead of a talented backcourt offering depth and flexibility, the Clippers were forced to start Cuttino Mobley and newcomer Jason Hart. The offense sputtered and the Clippers went on an 11-3-1 run under the total. This season the backcourt continued to have the same problems, while the frontcourt was decimated with the loss of Elton Brand. The Clippers have again been an under machine (37-24), especially at home where they started 21-12 under the total.

It's essential to study injury logs and keep track of who's playing and who's hurting when you analyze matchups. Some teams are deep and play good defense, which can help them survive injuries, while others can fall apart, both straight up and against the number.

Tom Stryker's Conference Tournament Money-Maker

2008-03-17T13:50:00.000-07:00

On Wednesday, March 12th, college basketball's major conferences will tip off their annual post season tournaments. This is the perfect appetizer to the Big Dance and this five-day hardwood run can provide all of us with excellent wagering opportunities.

Thanks to my powerful hoops database, I've been able to grind out a nice profit in March Madness over the years. A great deal of my winnings has come in the first round (or donkey round) of the tournament. Some of the conference's worst teams can be found at this stage of the game and, under the right set of circumstances, fading these bottom feeders can lead us to the cash.

Let's take a look at one specific system that goes against these conference losers. Since the 1990-91 season, sub .500 first round (or donkey round) teams are a dismal 35-55 ATS provided they're matched up against an opponent that enters off back-to-back straight up wins. Remember, momentum in college basketball can be an effective handicapping tool. In this situation, our "play against" bottom-feeder struggles to meet the emotional and physical challenge that their opponent provides. At press time, there are two potential teams stuck in this dismal situation: Bowling Green and Rice.

There are a couple of ways to tighten this system up and make it even more lucrative. With our 33-55 ATS set in hand and our "play against" side off a straight up loss and priced as an underdog or pick, this system crashes to a horrendous 16-39 ATS! We already have a bad team on the court. Things get even worse when our "loser" enters without momentum off a straight up loss. Both the Falcons and the Owls apply to this important tightener.

There is one additional parameter that can be added to this system that really makes it pop. With our 16-39 ATS tally on the board and our "play against" side is facing an opponent that is seeded at No. 5 or lower, this system dips to a dismal 5-25 ATS! Rice is the only team that fits this nearly perfect tightener.

Good luck with Southern Mississippi on Wednesday night and be sure to check back next week for an inside look at the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

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2008-03-11T11:47:00.001-07:00

HOUSTON, WE HAVE LIFTOFF!

2008-03-11T11:39:00.000-07:00

18 in a row! There's no better example of backing a hot roller at the dice table than the Houston Rockets. Some ascribe to the theory that a hot roller is going to cool off soon so they play against them. The more successful tried and true method is to ride the hot streak until they go cold and THEN jump off.

The Rockets couldn't be hotter, winning 18 in a row. After they had won 8 in a row, the contrarian would have reasoned, "They're overvalued. I'm playing against them." That reasoning would have failed as they won another 4 in a row. Then when Yao Ming got hurt, they would have thought, "Aha! NOW'S the time to bet against the Rockets." Then Houston ripped off 6 more wins, both straight up and against the spread, minus their star center.

This is also a great example of how teams can pull together after a key injury and continue to play well. I recall the 1980 NBA Finals when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar twisted an ankle in Game 5 and sat out Game 6. Everyone figured the Lakers were dead, but before the game wise old sage Bill Russell commented, "Oh, no. Many times when a star player goes out, role players off the bench can step in and the team won't miss a beat. In the long term, missing a star player can be a problem, but in the short term, a good team can survive."

Which is just what is happening with the Rockets. They've been motivated to keep this hot streak going. They are 27-3 since Jan. 4.One reason is the play of 27-year old Luis Scola, the NBA's oldest rookie. Scola is averaging 12.4 points and 6.4 rebounds and shooting 59 percent in 18 games as a starter. He's even better — 14.4 and 7.4 — since Yao Ming was injured. Scola was a two-time Most Valuable Player in the Spanish league and was the leading scorer on Argentina's gold medal 2004 Olympic team.

In addition, Rafer Alston and Shane Battier are having the best years of their career, while Tracy McGrady is healthy and shining on and off the court. Oh, and let's not overlook the importance of defense. Houston is second in the NBA (tops in the West) allowing 43% shooting by opponents and fourth overall allowing 92 ppg. First-year coach Rick Adelman was brought in to upgrade the offense. He has, as they average 97.5 points, but most impressive has been their continually strong 'D'. And that's needed even more with Ming on the shelf.

Simply put, the Rockets are a team that doesn't rely on one star to carry them. With Ming out, they can fall back on McGrady, talented role players like Battier and the rookie Scala, plus the best defense in the West.

When they played New Orleans on Saturday, my analysis on the game was, "Combine total confidence with major motivation and you've got a dangerous combo. That's the Houston Rockets these days. They're playing with a major chip on their shoulder, and they're obviously on a phenomenal run. New Orleans had to play Friday at home and now must hit the road to face this rested and red hot host. I'll get aboard the Houston express for this one." The Rockets won and covered again, 106-96. It didn't concern me that Houston had covered its previous nine games. I've been in this business a long time, and it's smarter to jump aboard the freight train than to try and jump in front of it!

Contrast that team with one like the LA Clippers. LA has also had injuries, but unlike the Rockets, they are a disinterested, dysfunctional bunch heading to the draft lottery instead of the playoffs. After losing to the Lakers by 39 points, Corey Maggette said, "We don't have a lot of guys playing the right way." Doesn't sound like team-harmony, does it? "Any time you get dusted pretty badly, then the best course of action is to go and play again," Coach Mike Dunleavy said. After which they lost at home to miserable Minnesota as a 4-point favorite.

"It's going to be easier for us to have a chance at winning," Chris Kaman said of playing some bad teams. "It doesn't mean we'll win, though." Doesn't sound like team a team with confidence, does it? The Clippers just concluded a stretch playing 11 of 12 games in their own city, yet they are on a 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS run.

Again, motivation and interest are so important this time of the basketball season. Don't try and guess WHEN a team like the Rockets is going to cool off, and be cautious about wagering on a team like the Clippers with so many problems they have on and off the court. Riding with the hot team and going against the cold team is smarter than trying to play the contrarian.

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March Hoops: David Can Slay Goliath

2008-03-11T11:38:00.000-07:00

It's that time of year again: Basketball games night and day, day and night and after a few hours of sleep, we wake up the next day and go through it all over again. NCAA tournament play is one of the most enjoyable times of the year for sports fans and bettors, with a seemingly endless stream of action and excitement.

Big name schools often end up playing for the title. The last two years Florida took home national championships by beating UCLA and Ohio State. In 2005, Illinois, North Carolina, Louisville and Michigan State met in the Final Four, and in recent years we've seen Kansas, Texas, Syracuse, Indiana, Oklahoma, Duke, Arizona, and Maryland. Big names, all of them, with no surprise schools like Pacific, Winthrop, Ohio or Stony Brook ever sneaking in. Large, high profile schools have big athletic budgets and enough scholarships to attract some of the top basketball talent, which is a key to their success.

However, this doesn't mean smaller, lesser-known schools can't compete with the big boys, especially when you look at one 40-minute game. There are countless examples for sports bettors. Think for a moment: You don't remember seeing Duke much in the Big Dance last year, do you? That's because the Blue Devils got upset in the first round, losing to VCU, 79-77. That same weekend UNLV upset Georgia Tech and Wisconsin on its way to the Sweet 16.

Two years ago the big story was George Mason out of the Colonial Athletic Association. The Patriots made it to the Final Four by knocking off Michigan State, North Carolina and UConn. They were 5, 6 and 8 point dogs in those games. Three years ago in the first round alone, Wisconsin-Milwaukee upset Alabama 83-73, UConn squeaked by Central Florida 77-71 as a 19-point favorite, Bucknell stunned Kansas 64-63, and Vermont took Syracuse to overtime and won 60-57.

Did you forget all those surprises? With so many games in March, it's easy to forget the early rounds. How about tiny Holy Cross few years ago? The Crusaders had to face Dwyane Wade and Marquette in the tournament opener and as a 10-point dog, Holy Cross covered in a close 72-68 game. Holy Cross also gave mighty Kansas, with Drew Gooden, Nick Collison and coach Roy Williams. At first glance, some of the games look like mismatches, but a good handicapper is skilled in the art of careful analysis and patience.

Every year one or two little known teams make memorable runs. A school like Butler from the Horizon League is in the Big Dance again and they are no strangers to pulling surprises. A few years ago, Butler topped Mississippi State 47-46 and then upset Louisville, 79-71. Which brings up a good point for serious sports bettors: It is not wise to take big favorites on the money-line. The payoff is poor, and successful sports wagering is as much about money management as it is picking winners. Taking a shot with a big dog who you think might be able to hang in there is much smarter than wagering $900 to win $100, for example, on a minus-900 favorite. Surprising upsets happen all the time.

Several things are happening. One is the old NFL axiom, "On any given Sunday" one team can beat another, regardless of record or talent. Sometimes the better team simply has a bad night shooting the basketball, or the big underdog can't miss. One of the most memorable upsets came in the 1985 NCAA Finals when Villanova - a +10 dog - upset mighty Georgetown 66-64. The Wildcats hit 22-of-28 field goals, a sizzling 78%. It would be tough to beat ANY underdog that shoots 78%!

Another reason is that some smaller schools happen to have NBA-caliber talent. Miami of Ohio made a memorable run in 1999 with future NBA star Wally Szczerbiak. Miami went 24-8 SU/17-14 ATS that season and upset Washington in the NCAA tournament, 59-58 as a +2 dog, beat Utah 66-58 as a +8 dog before falling to Kentucky as a +10 dog. You never know: schools like Cornell, Butler, Xavier, or Drake just might be showcasing future NBA talent this month.

Other times a small school has a great coach or a collection of talented kids who play tough defense and believe in themselves enough to upset traditional powers. You may recall a March tourney where the Detroit Titans upset UCLA 56-53 and Weber State beat mighty North Carolina 76-74 as a +14 dog! Teams are generally motivated to play in the NCAA tournament, but this isn't always the case with the NIT. Some teams that were hoping to get to the Big Dance are disappointed at being selected for the lower-seeded NIT or CBI and aren't always focused for their best effort.

Sometimes there are look-ahead spots, where a high-seeded team might be looking past an opponent it might not take seriously. That's what appeared to happen in the game I mentioned earlier, Kansas against Holy Cross. Kansas needed a second half push to top the Crusaders 70-59 as a 29-point favorite. It also wouldn't have been the first time a small school upset a big-name program. Don't take big favorites on the money-line and don't simply lay the points on the more famous conference or school without doing your homework, because tourney time is loaded with surprises.

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NBA Road Ahead: Tough Stretch for the Clippers & Bobcats

2008-03-11T11:35:00.000-07:00

What's blue and red and has no home? The LA Clippers! That is, the Clippers have played 11 of the last 12 games in Los Angeles, and yet they are a miserable 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread the last nine games. They.5?ve played only two official road games during that stretch, and one of them was against the LA Lakers in their own city. And it didn't help, as they got blown out 119-82.

So, essentially, this team has no home court edge, getting beaten up wherever they play. That makes this week even worse for the Clippers, beginning a 5-game road trip. If you're looking for bad situational spots for this bad team, look ahead to this Friday and Saturday, when the Clippers play back to back road games at Atlanta and Washington. That's a LONG way from home, especially for a team that seems to have packed in the season already.

After getting blown out by the Lakers, they come up short in a 99-96 loss to the lowly Timberwolves, the NBA's worst road team. The Clippers led by as many as 13 points before faltering badly. Sam Cassell couldn't wait to get out of town and is now gone and the Clippers have been short-handed the entire season. Against Minnesota, Brevin Knight sat out with a sore neck. Dan Dickau and Andre Barrett, recently signed to a 10-day contract, turned into the only available point guards, and both were hard-pressed to guard a larger Randy Foye, who torched them for 26 points and six assists.

Center Chris Kaman is still playing on restricted minutes because of an achy lower back. In the Clippers' 37-point loss to the Lakers, point guard Dan Dickau made his first start of the season. The Clippers have used 27 starting lineups because of a revolving door of injuries. And losing brings lousy chemistry: "It's just tough right now,' Corey Maggette said. "We don't have a lot of guys playing the right way. This whole year has been up and down with lineups. You don't know who's going in. You don't know who's going to play. Our chemistry is a little suspect." The Clippers had played 11 of 12 games at Staples Center, going 3-9 in the stretch. Now they head out for a long road trip, good luck!

The Pacers have a difficult situation Friday and Saturday, playing back to back road games at Dallas and Orlando. That will be their 5th road game in 6 games.

The young Timberwolves also play their 5th road game in 6 games on Friday and Saturday, playing at the Sonics and Blazers.

Perhaps worst of all, the Charlotte Bobcats are in the middle of a stretch where they play 10 of 11 games on the road! This week they have to go through the dreaded Texas Triangle against Dallas (Wednesday) and at red-hot Houston (Friday). That 5-game Charlotte winning streak (5-0 against the spread) will be put to the test! Keep in mind Charlotte is on a 7-2 run over the total, topping 100 points in 6 straight.

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Basketball Sideline Stability

2008-03-03T13:49:00.000-08:00

The talent on the court determines how many wins and losses a team is going to ultimately end up with. However, there are important adjustments taking place on the sidelines that can significantly influence how a team performs, both straight up and against the number.

A coach leaving a program in mid-season can tell a lot about what is going on with a team. A squad could be unhappy or unmotivated, they could tune out what the coach is saying, or a coach could have difficulties off the court that are straining his ability to do his job properly. Indiana is the team getting the biggest headlines because of a late season coaching change. It.5?s highly unusual for a team, in any sport, having such a great season to make a sideline change. It's essential to pay close attention from a handicapping perspective as to what happens next.

In the case of Indiana, the Hoosiers are riding a 0-3 spread run under interim coach Dan Dakich, including an embarrassing 103-74 loss at Michigan State. That was easily the biggest disaster for a team with an impressive 24-5 record. With 1:37 remaining in the first half, Michigan State was leading 59-29. Their offense was generally reduced to one-on-one moves with the other four players standing around. "That was real embarrassing," Eric Gordon said. "Usually you don't get to see Big Ten teams score 100 points. They played harder, way harder than us..5?

You have to examine the Indiana stats for the whole season into two categories, BK and AK -- before Kelvim Sampson and after. It's true that the players are the ones who get it done on the court (or don't get it done). But coaching adds several factors, such as motivation, harmony, in game strategy and discipline. The loss to Michigan State sends up several red flags. Most important, how is it that a team allowing 64 ppg gives up 103? As many times as the coach screamed, "Get back on defense," no one responded. That can mean go-against spots, or if you like to play totals, games going over if a team is suddenly soft on 'D'. Incidentally, Indiana is on a 6-0 run over the total.

We saw something similar just two years ago, when Quin Snyder stepped down at Missouri. The Tigers were in a tailspin, losing 6 straight games (going 0-6 ATS). That's another red flag to sports bettors that something, or a combination of things, is clearly lacking. When a team has problems, they often pack it in on the road, and Missouri fit that bill in 2006 going 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS away from home. Missouri was also 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Talk about overvalued!

That same season longtime Oklahoma State coach Eddie Sutton stepped aside for the rest of the season after an embarrassing DUI charge. His son Sean took over as coach and the Cowboys went on a 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS run, and were just 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS as a dog. Changing a coach in mid-season can affect a team in very different ways. Texas Tech made a coaching change this season when Bobby Knight retired and his son, assistant Pat Knight, took over. The Red Raiders have played well despite the change, on a 4-2 SU/ATS run that included a big upset of Texas, 83-80. They won twice as a dog during that stretch as well as suffering a 44-point loss to A&M. The team showed toughness and resolve bouncing back with the upset of Texas.

After the 44-point loss, practice was unlike any other the Red Raiders have had this season. Knight didn't allow his players to wear their practice uniforms. He also made them dress outside the locker room for two straight days. One practice included very little basketball. The only basketball-related activity was free-throw shooting, after the team ran sprints while carrying weights! With their arms fatigued, only one player made a free throw and when the team didn't give him encouragement for making the shot, Knight made the team run....Sounds like a chip off the old block! Then they went out and upset Texas, so the new coach certainly pushed the right buttons.

If a capable assistant steps in, there might be little effect. But usually there is some change, such as a lack of defensive effort, or a team giving up, or one rallying around the coach. With a new coach, the team is most likely to give a better effort at home than on the road. Even when there are no coaching changes, coaches will make adjustments during the season to try and improve their team's play. A handicapper needs to be up on every move and gauge whether the move works or not in relation to the side and the total. Keeping up on all kinds of shifts, adjustments and goings-on with coaches (on and off the court) are necessary to try and find edges against the betting number.

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Crazy Year in the Big 10

2008-03-03T13:47:00.000-08:00

Tournament play runs wild this week! The Big 10 tournament is one of many major conference tournaments that will help whittle the field. Ohio State made the title game last year with Greg Oden while Michigan State won it all in 2000. Here's a look at some of the top teams of the Big 10 looking to make a similar run.

Wisconsin: The Badgers don't mind the physical game, allowing just 38% shooting with their power frontcourt of 6-11 senior Brian Butch (12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), 6-7 junior Joe Krabbenhoft and 6-7 junior Marcus Landry (11 ppg, 5 rpg). They are particularly bruising at home, allowing just 54 ppg, where they started 9-4 under the total. This should be a fun time for Butch, as a year ago he injured his elbow and missed tournament play, sinking the Badgers' hopes. Guards sophomore Trevon Hughes (12 ppg) and senior guard Michael Flowers anchor the backcourt for head coach Bo Ryan. Wiscy is 2-1 SU/ATS as a dog. This is an experienced team, as is evident with their 9-2 SU, 7-3 ATS road record. They have a win at Texas under their belts, 67-66, as a +7 dog, but failed to control the tempo in an 82-58 loss at Duke.

Indiana: What a strange season for Hoosier basketball. One of the top teams in the Big 10, yet they lose Kelvin Sampson last month because of NCAA infractions. Sampson was either brash or foolish, as he was run out of Oklahoma in 2006 for similar violations, now disgracing two programs. Interim coach Dan Dakich won his first two games since taking over and has a talented young backcourt, led by 6-4 freshman guard Eric Gordon (21 ppg), sophomore Armon Bassett (11 ppg) and freshman Jordan Crawford (10 ppg). The anchor up front is 6-9, 250-pound senior D.J. White (17 ppg, 10.4 rpg), who leads in rebounds and is second in scoring, along with 6-5 junior Jamarcus Ellis (7.2 rpg). They might have a chip on their shoulder come tourney time, with plenty to prove for the new coach. On the flip side, the coach, the administration and even some players have embarrassed the school and their great fans.

Purdue: Since December upset losses to Wofford and Iowa State, this young Boilermaker squad has been a machine, going on a 14-1 SU, 12-3 ATS run. Coach Matt Painter has done a fabulous job. The backcourt has freshman guard E'Twaun Moore (11.9 ppg) and sophomore 6-4 Keaton Grant, while up front they have freshmen 6-8 Robbie Hummel (11.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and 6-8 Scott Martin. Those kids lead the team in scoring and rebounding! They are not a great shooting team, at 42%, but play a slow-down style that allows 61 ppg. The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS as a dog and have a win over Louisville, 67-59. Painter was voted Missouri Valley Coach of the Year after his only season at Southern Illinois (2003-04) and is the favorite to cop Big 10 Coach of the Year.

Michigan State: The Spartans were up and down last season because of youth, but those growing pains paid dividends this season. Senior guard Drew Neitzel is a fine long range threat and averages 13.8 points, stabilizing the backcourt with freshman Kalin Lucas. 6-7 sophomore Raymar Morgan was the team's second-leading scorer a year ago and is the leader this year with 15.2 ppg. He teams with 6-10 junior Goran Suton up front. Tom Izzo has another strong defensive team allowing 39% shooting. They have wins over Texas, but lost a showdown with UCLA, 68-63. Their road record has improved dramatically from last year's poor 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS mark, but they don't have a winning record as a dog.

Ohio State: Lose freshman stars Greg Oden and Mike Conley to the NBA? No problem. Thad Motta has done a remarkable rebuilding job with defense leading team way. Ohio State allows 38% shooting and 60 ppg, starting 16-7 under the total with senior guard Jamar Butler (14 ppg, 6.3 apg) leading the offense. Up front, 7-foot freshman Kosta Koufos (13.9 ppg, 7 rpg) and 6-8 senior Othello Hunter have been terrific in scoring and on the glass. Two concerns are that they have not been a good road team, and they lost 6 of their first 7 games as a dog.

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No Payback Payday

2008-03-03T13:44:00.001-08:00

An Inside Look At Last Home Game Sets

College basketball teams refer to this contest as "senior night." It is the final home game of the regular season where athletes get one last chance to walk off their homecourt a winner. This is an emotional evening for both players and coaches. There are times when this event leads to a lackluster performance because of all the distractions involved. However, for the most part, this is usually the one game where you know that a home team will give literally everything its got in order to pick up a victory.

Sports handicappers in the industry like to label this battle as an "LHG". There are a bunch of different technical ways a 'capper can break teams down in last home game sets. Some use revenge while others actually go against high priced favorites. Personally, I have 10 reliable Last Home Game Systems in my portfolio and all have made me a ton of money in the past. The one I am going to share with you today is lucky No. 7 and it's called "No Payback Payday". Take a look.

Since 1990, college basketball teams playing in their last home game of the season carry a 1448-1369 ATS record for 51.4 percent. That doesn't give any profit (counting the vig) but it does indicate right off the bat that the potential is there!

With our base in hand, let's make our LHG team affordably priced. After breaking down the lines a number of different ways, I discovered the most profit was found when our host was an underdog or a favorite of -4 or less. In this set, the home team improves to 732-639 ATS for 53.3 percent. This tightener puts us in the black. If you invested $100 per game on all of those last home game sets, you would have pocketed $2,910 in net profit with the juice.

Here's the spot where this system goes from good to great. With our 732-639 ATS on the board, this technical set improves to a sizzling 125-77 ATS for 61.8 percent provided our host owns a won/loss percentage of .375 or better and they are not playing with revenge. By eliminating bad teams and those that might be playing with too much emotional energy (revenge sets can do that), this No Payback Payday system now nets a $100 investor $4,030 in net profit. The nice part about that number is you only had to invest on 202 total games instead of 1,371 contests to get that money. Talk about less risk!

There is one additional parameter that can be added to the last tightener that makes this system really pop. If we remove those home teams that won 11 or more games on their homecourt this season, this technical set zips to a blistering 92-46 ATS for 66.6 percent! The stronger homecourts lead to inflated numbers. By taking a team that owns 10 home wins or less we can eliminate those squads that might come overpriced.

The Horizon League has its conference tournament on Tuesday, March 4th and that will officially begin March Madness. These "No Payback Payday" last home game sets will be popping up regularly over the next eight days. Be sure to hang on to this powerful college basketball system. It will definitely make you money in the days to come! I'll be back next Friday with another informative handicapping article. Best of luck this weekend.

College basketball picks for this year's March Madness.

College Hoops: The Best of the Pac 10

2008-02-25T10:18:00.000-08:00

It's been a year of "The Big Two" for Pac 10 in basketball, with UCLA and Stanford duking -- or dunking -- it out much of the season. Here's a look at the strengths and weaknesses of some of college basketball's best teams in the Pacific 10.

UCLA: Ben Howland has another super-talented team. Up front, 6-8 junior Luc Richard Mbah a Moute just returned from an ankle injury while 6-10 freshman center Kevin Love (17 ppg, 11 rpg) has been a force in the middle. They are joined by juniors point guard Darren Collison (13.9 ppg) and Josh Shipp (14 ppg) anchoring a deep backcourt on a team that beats opponents by 16 points per contest (74-58 average).

Howland knows how to teach defense and the attacking Bruins allow 42% shooting. UCLA is 2-0 SU/ATS as a dog. That makes the Bruins 12-3 ATS as a dog the last three years! In an impressive 56-46 win over rival USC, the Bruins forced 22 turnovers, held the Trojans to 34% shooting and 22 points below their scoring average. UCLA is 53-37 ATS the last three years while making back-to-back Final Four appearances.

Stanford: The Cardinal is hot on the trail of UCLA. The centerpiece for Stanford is a pair of BIG sophomore 7-foot twins Brook and Robin Lopez anchoring the frontcourt. Brook leads the team with 19 points and 8 boards per game, while Robin chips in 9 points and 6 rebounds. They are shot blocking and rebounding forces in the low post.

A pair of juniors provide more offense in 6-8 Lawrence Hill (9 ppg, 5 rpg) and guard Anthony Goods (10 ppg). Stanford plays great defense, allowing 38% shooting and 58 points per game. That's why they started 16-8 under the total. They got a chance to to play UCLA in early January, but lost at home 76-67. Stanford has one more shot at redemption the first week of March with a trip to UCLA. They are 2-1 SU/ATS as a dog.

Washington State: The Cougars are not always pretty, slowing things down while allowing 55 ppg under second-year coach Tony Bennett. They also win, topping 20 wins for the third time in four years. The backcourt leads the team in scoring with seniors Derrick Low (13.8 ppg) and Kyle Weaver (11 ppg).

A slow-down team needs muscle up front to grab defensive rebounds, and the Cougars have it with 6-7 junior Daven Harmeling, 6-10 senior center Robbie Cowgill and 6-10 junior center Aron Baynes. Washington State has not been a great team to wager under the total, as oddsmakers have caught up, but they are 9-6 SU, 10-5 ATS the last 15 as a dog. After starting 14-0, they went 3-5 SU/1-7 ATS as conference play began.

Arizona: The Wildcats haven't been as explosive an offensive team under interim coach Kevin O'Neill as they used to be under Lute Olsen. Part of it is that they are not a tall team, which was evident in last week's 67-66 loss to Stanford, as the Cardinal outrebounded the undersized Wildcats 35-25.

Arizona relies on the scoring punch of freshman guard Jerryd Bayless (21 ppg) and 6-7 junior Chase Budinger (17 ppg, 5 rpg), while 6-9 senior Jordan Hill (12 ppg, 8 rpg) works the glass. They should have motivation over the next few weeks, on the bubble for the NCAA tournment. Note that Arizona is 6-2 ATS as a dog.

USC: The Trojans remind many of UCLA just a few years ago -- very talented, very inexperienced. Freshman guard O.J. Mayo was one of the most sought after high school players and he's leading the Trojans with 19.5 points per game. He's had an outstanding season, but can be prone to turnovers. In last week's loss to UCLA he had 10 turnovers. His 23 consecutive double-figure games to start a career is a school record and ended against UCLA.

The frontcourt has 6-6 sophomore Taj Gibson (10 ppg, 8 rpg) as the leading rebounder, along with 6-8 freshman Davon Jefferson (12 ppg, 6 rpg). Tim Floyd has these guys playing great defense, allowing 38% shooting and 62 ppg. They started 14-8 under the total and 7-4 ATS as a dog.

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The Texas Triangle

2008-02-25T10:17:00.000-08:00

The Bermuda Triangle is etched in American folklore as a mysterious place where planes and ships have encountered all kinds of difficulties. It's an enigma dripping with fear, as some unfortunate people have entered the triangle and have never been heard from again. In the NBA, there.5?s a similar place not as deadly, but certainly one that elicits fear among professional athletes: The Texas Triangle.

As we start the second half of the NBA season, who wants to play in Texas these days? The Houston Rockets have been playing great basketball as star center Yao Ming has been a force. Defending champion San Antonio is still loaded to make another title run, while the Dallas Mavericks are add Jason Kidd to a team that a year ago went 44-5 after an 0-4 start!

Road play in basketball is a tough enough grind. Teams playing four straight home games, for example, are generally in better shape to play up to its capabilities than a team playing four straight road games. Road play can be grueling, with athletes having to put up with all kinds of physical and emotional demands not required when at home. Plan travel, a lack of sleep, and changing time zones are three of many challenges players have to put up with on the road.

Currently in the NBA, Texas happens to have three teams that have a lot of talent and come at you in different ways. Dallas has a strong offense and a deep bench and can run the opposition ragged, while Houston and San Antonio have suffocating defenses that force the opponent to work hard for 48 minutes for every basket. A good handicapper pays careful attention to teams taking a road trip through the Texas Triangle.

Playing at San Antonio is tough enough, where the Spurs have started 21-5 SU, 15-11 ATS allowing just 89 points per game. San Antonio is 16-8 under the total at home. But to rub elbows with the Spurs on their home court, and then travel to Dallas and/or Houston, sometimes with no rest, is particularly grueling for teams. Houston is 17-9 at home. Dallas may have trouble on the road, but they started 23-3 at home for the second straight season!

That's why it's important for handicappers to examine not just each particular game, but a series of games. Questions that you need to ask: Is this the second of a back-to-back road spot? Does Team A have the bench to play a physically demanding game against the Rockets, and then get up and down the court the next night against Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs? Are they more interested in getting out of Texas to play lighter competition? Some teams have it in their heads to try and take one of three games in Texas, so if they pull an upset at Dallas, for instance, maybe they will not be that interested in playing hard against the physical Rockets two nights later.

The Miami Heat open the second half of the season with a road game at Chicago, then had to head through the Texas Triangle. They lost the first game, at Houston, but double digits, failing to cover.

These are the kinds of situations over several games that can give handicappers an edge. After all, athletes are human. Psychologically, they know who they're playing each night and who's coming up on the schedule. Sometimes a team is beaten even before it gets on the court, which can be an enormous gift when trying to identify winners against the Vegas number. And the Texas Triangle is currently the most difficult road situation for visiting NBA squads.

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The Big NBA Trades

2008-02-25T10:15:00.000-08:00

We've had a few games to begin to digest the big NBA deadline trades. They were certainly blockbuster moves, garnering headlines from coast to coast, with one 11-player trade and stars like Shaq and Jason Kidd getting new area codes. Cleveland and Chicago appeared to get better with the three-team, 11-player deal involving Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Adrian Griffin and Larry Hughes.

The Cavaliers went from being a defensive-oriented team with one star on offense (LeBron James) and a lot of offensive deadwood, to one with multiple scoring options. Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith and guard Delonte West made a big impression on Sunday in a 109-89 blowout of Memphis. James led the way with 25 points, 11 assists and seven rebounds, Smith had 14 points, six rebounds and Szczerbiak had 10 points to help the Cavs to their third straight victory.

The forgotten man of the NBA, Ben Wallace, was also impressive, making the starting lineup for Cleveland and finishing with 12 points, 10 rebounds. Wallace is the defensive and rebounding force, while LeBron and his other new mates can focus on offense. Cleveland was 25th in the NBA in shooting before the trade. After making the NBA Finals last year with a slow-down, defensive approach, it seems the Cavs are opening up the offense for two reasons. 1) They were boring, with little scoring, and fewer wins this season; 2) Keeping LeBron happy with more wins and an uptempo style might entice him to stick around longer. Wearing a NY Yankees cap to the 2007 ALCS in Jacobs Field wasn't the smartest PR move for LeBron, and certainly showed where his heart is. He could bolt after the 2009-10 season.

Chicago got younger by dumping Wallace, as newcomer Larry Hughes, at 29, is the Bulls' elder statesman. Both Hughes and 6-10 Drew Gooden expressed excitement over the trade. They were delighted with their first game in their new uniforms, rolling up 135 points in a win over the Nuggets. It signaled a youth movement in Chicago. With Wallace out it frees up more time in the frontcourt for Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah.

In that win over Denver, it was the first time all season all five Bulls' starters reached double figures. The Bulls also set a league season high with 56 field goals. The joke in Chicago is that Ben Wallace really had been playing defense for the Bulls all season: He kept stopping Thomas and Noah from contributing!

While that win added some electricity to the Bulls, they quickly came back to earth in a 110-97 loss at Houston. Offense has been a problem more than defense, but the reverse was true against the Rockets. "Too much penetration," interim coach Jim Boylan said. "It's an area we have to get better at." Chicago is 3-0 over the total the last three games since that trade, an angle to keep an eye on with all their new personnel.

Out West, Dallas has a new point guard in Jason Kidd. It's tough to size this trade up yet, as the Mavericks won by 15 and 16 points, but it was to the Grizzlies and T-Wolves. Kidd just played in his 1,000th game and amassed 17 assists against Minnesota. Defense was the story in those games for Dallas, as both sailed way under the total. In fact, Dallas is on a 10-4 run under the total. A point to keep in mind about the Mavericks is that Erik Dampier is the team's only true center and he's logging more minutes and more responsibility.

The Spurs got rid of longtime three-point threat Brent Barry to get bigger up front with Kurt Thomas. This is an interesting move, as Barry was an important role player for San Antonio helping them to two titles. When the Spurs lost to the Lakers in the playoffs a few years ago, LA just packed the paint on Duncan and dared the Spurs to beat them from long range. They were miserable from beyond the arc. The next season they added Barry and teams could not longer ignore the three-point line.

San Antonio wants to get some bulk in the paint, it seems, because of the BIG move Phoenix made, bringing in Shaq. Shaq was brought in as a role player for the first time in his career, to play 20 minutes a game, or a weapon the run-and-gun Suns could go to when other teams (San Antonio) slowed the pace down. The down side is they gave up depth and a star player (Shawn Marion) for the aging, overweight and oft-injured diesel.

So far they don't look so hot, on a 1-2 SU/ATS run. Worse, all three games were at home, losing to the Lakers 130-124 and getting blown out by the Pistons, 116-86. It was the Suns worst loss of the season. The Pistons give Phoenix matchup problems galore. Their rotation has enough size to dominate the boards (outrebounding the Suns 48-32) and spread the floor with shooting. After shooting 42.5 percent in Friday's win over Boston, Phoenix shot 41.6 percent Sunday. It was the first time that the Suns scored fewer than 90 points in consecutive games in the four seasons since Nash returned.

The most important thing, from a handicapping perspective, is to remain patient and don't pass judgment too quickly. It always takes time when new players join a team. Chemistry is important and players won't mesh right away. Keep tabs on the new strengths and weaknesses of teams, and be sure and guage how that might be influencing the side and total. After all, new players can mean new winning opportunities ATS -- if you know what to look for.

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Dealing with the Whims of 3-Point Performance

2008-02-18T12:48:00.001-08:00

Probably the biggest monkey wrench for college basketball handicappers is the seeming randomness of three-point shooting performances. Whenever you lose a game you love, it seems like your team will always have something like 2-12 or 3-18 on their three-point stat line. If not that, the opponent was 8-12 or 10-15. If three-point shooting had been normal, you would have won easily. Instead, something way out of line happened and you took a loss instead of a win.

It's easy to forget that ALL sports have random influences like this. Turnovers in football can wreak havoc with outcomes. The way an umpire calls a strike zone can seemingly determine the winner of any baseball game. The reason sharp handicappers dont hit 75% or 80% of all of their releases is because the randomness of sports makes that impossible. You do your best to find edges, just as you would when playing Texas Hold-em. The cards that hit the flop, turn, and river are out of your control.

Three-point shooting is out of your control!

Though, I have to admit, it's becoming more predictable than it used to be in college basketball. We're at a point now where most teams have somebody who's almost automatic if they get an open look out of a set offense. Kids have been shooting this shot since they started playing the game. By the time they reach the college level, specialists really are marksmen at the relatively short distance (which, thankfully, is being lengthened next season because the shot really has become too cheap). Handicappers should be looking at the shot from the following perspective:

3-POINT FUNDAMENTALS: *It's easier to make threes at home than on the road because the shooting backdrop is familiar. This isn't as big an issue as it used to be, but it's still a valid point.

*It's easier to make uncontested threes than contested three's. That's obvious of course. Too many poorly coached teams don't realize this!

*It's easier to make threes when a player is planted and set than it is when he comes to a full stop on the fast break. You'll see many "automatic" bid teams from lesser conferences in the Big Dance try to hit treys out of transition. They tend to clank balls off the rim all day. Other programs have copied the "Princeton" offense that patiently moves the ball around until a shooter in good position gets an open look.

*It's easier to make threes in cozy arenas than it is in NBA-style arenas, or in domes converted for basketball during March Madness. Remember this come tournament time.

*It's easier to make threes against defenses who are tall and slow. They just can't cover the entire perimeter very efficiently.

*It's easier to make threes with fresh legs than with tired legs (important to remember during conference tournaments).

With those fundamentals in mind, handicappers should then take these two critical steps: *Find the teams who make great use of three-pointers out of their regular offenses, and look for spots where this will be particularly helpful. Read through the boxscores and look for consistency and a clean percentage.

*Find teams who tend to launch a bunch of treys in panic mode when they fall behind, and look for spots where this will be a big problem. These will be clear in the boxscores with teams who have a lot of those 3-18 or 6-24 type games.

Suddenly, three-point performance won't seem so random any more. You'll be taking teams who shoot the trey intelligently when they're facing poor defenses in good scoring conditions. You'll be going against poorly coached erratic teams who are launching guarded shots while trailing on a court with a bad shooting background.

Instead of feeling like you're at the mercy of a random stat, you'll feel largely in command of what is arguably the single most important factor in that game. You'll be backing Butler, Drake, or Air Force at home against a slow-footed defense in a game they're going to win handily. You'll be going against Troy or Fresno State in a road game where the bombs just aren't going to fall.

I hope you'll pay serious attention to this stat in these last few weeks of the regular season, and all through the conference tournaments and Big Dance. You'll feel much more in command of the sport, and you'll be finding easy winners in spots you weren't even looking at before!

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NBA Second Half Stretch Run

2008-02-18T12:46:00.002-08:00

The NBA took the weekend off for the All Star break, but now it's back to action. The second half stretch run is one of the best times of the year for sports handicappers. Some teams are completely out of it and will pack it in, allowing for great go-against spots. Other "bubble" teams will attempt to make a second half push to try and squeeze into the playoffs, while still others are the elite teams jockeying for the top seeds in each conference. Here's a look at some of those top dogs that are thinking NBA title.

Pistons: The old warriors in Detroit continue to be one of the beasts of the East since their surprise title in 2004. Depth and experience are their hallmarks. This backcourt is still deadly behind Richard Hamilton (18.3 ppg) and Chauncey Billups (17.3 ppg), leading Detroit in scoring. Both are clutch and Hamilton's height creates mismatches.

There are rebounders and role players all over with Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess. McDyess had come off the bench in recent years, but the experiment to have him start this season has worked well, averaging 9 points and 6 boards. Flip Saunders was brought in to run a more uptempo offense, but note that Detroit still plays defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA. The Pistons play great defense at home, but allow 7 more points per game on the road, where they are 15-10 over the total.

Celtics: This was the makeover team of the century, going from perennial lottery team to powerhouse overnight. GM Danny Ainge essentially changed the Green from a one-star team (Paul Pierce) to three stars with the additions of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Garnett's enthusiasm and work ethic have impressed everyone. Reports are he even loves practice! Most impressive is that the Celtics went from being a poor defensive team for several years under Doc Rivers to the best. Boston allows 42% shooting and 89 points per game, both tops in the league. That's why they are 18-5 SU, 16-7 ATS on the road. The Celtics begin the second half of the season on a long West Coast swing and expect Garnett to be back healthy. Another Pistons/Celtics Eastern Finals, like the 1980s, is in the cards.

Hornets: Where did these guys come from? New Orleans has the most explosive guard the NBA has season in a long time in Chris Paul, averaging 20.5 points and 10.9 assists. But he's not alone. They have a pair of kids playing well on the boards in 6-9 David West (19.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg) and 7-1 Tyson Chandler (12.5 rpg), plus veteran long range shooter Peja Stojakovic, who has been healthy enough to start 46 games. A remarkable 19-7 SU, 16-7 ATS road record shows this young team is no fluke.

Mavericks: It's tough to figure out who's running the Mavs. Jason Kidd arrives to put them over the top....then the trade is dead....and now it's back on! Seems like the Mavs are panicking after hearing Shaq was heading West. Word is that they are down on Devin Harris, a young guy with talent and speed, but suspect basketball knowledge. So bringing in a soon-to-be-35 year old Kidd is going to put them over the top? OK, but they already had a brilliant playmaker a few years ago in Steve Nash and defended the move to let him go. Who wouldn't want the talent on this team? They dominated the regular season a year ago, and two years ago make the NBA Finals with a super-talented young team. Now it seems as though they are panicking. Perhaps the most revealing stat regarding the Mavs is a poor 12-15 SU, 10-16 ATS road record.

Suns: He's here! The most expensive role player in NBA history, that is. The trade for Shaq is fascinating, changing the makeup of a finesse, run-and-gun team to one that can crash the boards with a monster rebounder, when needed. Come playoff time, they will need someone like that, especially after recent playoff losses to the rugged Spurs. They are gambling that Shaq has just enough left in the tank to help them win a title, making the cost of Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks reasonable. Awful Minnesota slowed the pace down and went 2-0 SU/ATS against Phoenix this season! So the Suns made the move in the event playoff teams like San Antonio decide to slow it down. Note that the Suns are 1-2 SU/1-1-1 ATS as a dog, and 3-0 under the total in those games as defense and slow tempo was the difference.

Spurs: Think the Spurs are already gearing up for the playoffs? San Antonio is currently on a 12-4 run under the total. They are 30-18 under the total overall. Despite playing .500 ball on the road, they have been hiding under the radar much of the season, trying to get healthy. Yet, they are still a force to be reckoned with. Asked last week about Shaq going to Phoenix because he wants a fifth ring, Duncan snapped, "To heck with him. I want that fifth ring."

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Big East: What A Conference!

2008-02-18T12:46:00.001-08:00

Once again the Big East is loaded with talented teams. Marquette, Cincinnati and Louisville came aboard two years ago, among others, joining powerhouses like UConn, Syracuse and Pitt to form a 16-team Super Big East conference. A Big East representative won college basketball's national championship four years ago (UConn, 2004) and several will be knocking on the door again.

Georgetown: Georgetown uses its outstanding frontcourt to play tough defense, allowing just 57 ppg. The frontcourt is awesome with 7-2 senior Roy Hibbert and 6-8 sophomore DaJuan Summers, the top two leading scorers. 6-8 senior Patrick Ewing, Jr. is a good role player along the boards. The height up front also helps the Hoyas on offense, shooting 49% from the field, tops in the Big East.

Senior Jonathan Wallace and junior Jessie Sapp run the backcourt. Defense is the key, as they started 15-5 under the total. Two weaknesses are poor free throw shooting (64%) and they've gone cold from three-point land in big games. Georgetown was 4-for-22 from long range in last week's 59-51 loss to Louisville, and 3 of 20 from beyond the arc in a loss to Pitt. They are also just 1-2 SU/ATS as a dog.

Louisville: The Cardinals had some early season struggles because of injuries, but they are healthy at the right time. 6-11 senior center David Padgett is back from injury, anchoring the frontcourt as the team captain. He gets help up front with 6-9 sophomore Earl Clark (10 ppg, 8 rpg), 6-8 soph Derrick Caracter and 6-8 senior Juan Palacios.

Louisville plays great defense with that frontcourt for Rick Pitino, allowing 37% shooting. They started 15-8 under the total. 6-6 senior Terrence Williams (11 ppg, 7.8 rpg) does everything well, leading the team in scoring and assists (4.7 apg) and is second in rebounding. They have showdowns with Pitt this weekend and later Notre Dame and Georgetown before conference tournament play.

UConn: Coach Jim Calhoun has another dominant Husky frontcourt. They lead the Big East in rebounding and blocks behind 6-7 junior Jeff Adrien (14 ppg, 9 rpg) and sophomore center 7-foot-3 Hasheem Thabeet (11 ppg, 7 rpg). Throw in 6-9 sophomore Stanley Robinson and that trio accounts for 23 rebounds per game!

UConn started 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a dog. That's in stark contrast to last season, when a younger Husky squad went 2-8 SU/ATS on the road and 0-8 SU/ATS as a dog. The backcourt is deep behind junior Jerome Dyson (14 ppg) and senior A.J. Price (14 ppg, 6 apg), a fine playmaker. Starting with a 68-63 win over Indiana, the Huskies went on a 5-0 run under the total. With March around the corner, it's a good time to start turning up the 'D'.

Notre Dame: The Irish are the Big East's highest-scoring team (81 ppg) behind an outstanding frontcourt of 6-8 sophomore Luke Harangody (20 ppg, 10 rpg) and 6-9 senior Rob Kurz (12 ppg, 8 rpg). It's not all about the frontcourt, though, as Notre Dame is also tops in three-point shooting (40%) and free throws.

Junior guard Kyle McAlarney (15 ppg) and 6-8 G/F Ryan Ayers provide backcourt firepower, while sophomore sparkplug Tory Jackson dishes out over 6 assists per contest. Notre Dame is 8-3 over the total at home and 4-0 over on the road. They are a .500 road team, however, and need to have that offense clicking to win: Last month Georgetown's defense clobbered them, 84-65, as did Marquette, 92-66. The Irish started 1-3 SU as a dog.

Pitt: The Panthers lost Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall to graduation, but have come right back this season with another powerful frontcourt behind 6-7 freshman DeJuan Blair (11 ppg, 9 rpg) and 6-6 Sam Young (17 ppg, 6.8 rpg). Their defense is also the same -- terrific, allowing 62 ppg and 40% shooting. One thing the Panthers have going for them is the return of junior guard Levance Fields, who's been out since late December.

Pitt survived six week's worth of Big East games without two starters and won more games than it lost, but the Panthers want to finish stronger than the last three seasons: They are 6-4, 6-4 and 5-5 the last three years over their final 10 regular season games. Pitt is the only Big East Conference school to win 20 or more overall games and 10 or more league contests in each of the last seven seasons.

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NBA Davids to Goliaths

2008-02-12T09:47:00.000-08:00

It's not often you see NBA trades or free agent moves that turn around the fortunes of teams fast. When you look at recent NBA champs (the Lakers, Spurs, Pistons and Heat) it was a combination of things that built them. The Spurs hit the draft lottery jackpot with Tim Duncan in 1997, while the Lakers and Heat won their titles with Shaq in the middle. Shaq went as a free agent to LA in 1996, then was traded to Miami in 2004.

But the Lakers, Celtics and Suns have been the focus of the league this season because of key trades. The Celtics were the ultimate worst to first story, an NBA afterthought for years until the Kevin Garnett trade last summer turned them completely around. They've even surprised the oddsmakers, going 30-16 against the spread and a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog!

Celtics GM Danny Ainge made a terrible move two seasons ago, trading away the No. 7 pick in the draft (Brandon Roy) to Portland for forgettable Sebastian Telfair. But he had a slam dunk last summer, acquiring Ray Allen from Seattle for a draft pick, then packaging a slew of young players for the 30-year old Garnett. In an instant the Green went from having one star to three.

Almost as significant has been the role players Ainge has assembled. James Posey and Eddie House have been terrific on the boards, on defense, and from long range. Rookie Glen Davis has been an asset in the paint. While Davis is a large man, Ainge said he drafted Davis because of the little things he saw. In exhibition games in Las Vegas he watched Davis dive for loose balls and box out on the boards, things that Davis didn't do at LSU as much because he was the focal point of their offense and defense.

In Sunday's win over San Antonio, 98-90, the Celtics won again without Garnett. Davis and Leon Powe defended Duncan and combined for 14 points and 11 rebounds, while the Celtics outscored the Spurs in the paint, 30-26. The Celts are now 5-2 without Garnett, the two losses by a combined four points. They are tops in the NBA in team defense and 17-5 SU, 15-7 ATS on the road.

The Lakers also made news with the trade for Pau Gasol. This was a good old fashioned swindle. Memphis wasn't winning with Gasol and, like Garnett in Minnesota, ownership figured they could save money with Kwame Brown and lose just as much. They were right on both counts. A large segment of the fan base disliked Gasol, booed him and wanted the Griz to dump him. The team realized that having a losing record with star player that can't draw at the ticket window would never work. Regardless, it was a terrible trade for Memphis and a steal for the Lakers. Like the Celtics, the Lakers now have a fascinating offensive trio of Kobe Bryant, Gasol and young 7-footer Andrew Bynum.

Spurs coach Greg Popovich was furious: "What they did in Memphis is beyond comprehension," he said. "There should be a trade committee that can scratch all trades that make no sense. I just wish I had been on a trade committee that oversees NBA trades. I'd like to elect myself to that committee. I would have voted no to the L.A. trade." Ha! Hats off to Popovich for his honesty. Let me add that the guy who made the trade for Memphis, GM Chris Wallace, ran the Celtics into the ground with numerous bad moves before Ainge took over. Now Wallace hasn't been in Memphis for a full year and he's ruined them. That.5?s another good example of how important front office leadership in sports is.

Of course, the big news was in Phoenix, where a very good Suns team traded a four-time All Star (Shawn Marion) for Shaq. Shaq is soon to be 36, hasn't played since January 21st and who knows how much his REAL weight is. It's an interesting trade. The Suns clearly view O'Neil as a role player and defensive threat, one to come in late in games for key rebounds. He can also be used in a playoff series against the Spurs, a team that has beaten Phoeonix in the postseason. Maybe Shaq can change that? On the other hand, he isn't going to be much use offensively in the Suns' run-and-gun high octane attack.

It has certainly been one of the most interesting NBA seasons involving trades. Keep in mind that Phoenix is 21-2 against Eastern Conference teams this season, with games against Boston and Detroit for the first time each this month. Hopefully Garnett and Shaq will be back, and we can get a better sense of how Phoenix will utilize O'Neil, or if he's a factor at all.

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College Hoops: Best of the SEC

2008-02-12T09:45:00.000-08:00

The SEC has a bunch of teams that are loaded with talent, depth and athleticism. Kentucky won the national championship in 1998, Florida knocked on the door in 2000 getting to the title game against Michigan State, the won it all the last two seasons. Here's a look at some of college basketball's best teams in the SEC.

Florida: Coach Bill Donovan has been the king of the SEC the last two years, as well as the college basketball world, with back-to-back titles. He is rebuilding with a talented, though very young, team. The centerpiece is athletic 6-6 freshman Nick Calathes (15 ppg, 6 apg), who leads the Gators in scoring and assists and is fine rebounder. Junior guard Walter Hodge teams with him in the backcourt, while 6-10 sophomore Marreese Speights (14 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and 6-7 sophomore Dan Werner anchor the frontcourt.

The Gators love the up-tempo game (80 ppg) shooting over 49%, tops in the SEC. This young team hasn't been stellar on the road, however, and last week suffered a pair of blowout losses, 80-61 at Arkanas and 104-82 at Tennessee. Donovan called a double session after the loss to Arkansas, a rarity during the middle of conference play, then they got smoked by the Vols. They haven't been very good as a dog, but started 7-2 ATS as chalk.

Tennessee: The Volunteers certainly made a statement with last week's 104-84 rout of Florida. Bruce Pearl has a veteran backcourt-oriented team with two senior guards as the leading scorers in Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith, while 6-7 sophomore Tyler Smith (13 ppg, 6 rpg) has been strong up front. Their uptempo attack is tops in scoring in the SEC and has helped them start 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS on the road! That's in stark contrast to their poor road play a year ago, so it's clear this team has come a long way.

Do they rely too much on offense? The Vols shot 39% against Texas (a 97-78 loss) and 38% in a 72-66 loss at Kentucky. Tennessee settled for 3-pointers down the stretch and allowed 63% and 49% shooting in those defeats. Still, the Vols are 4-0 SU/ATS as a dog and just smashed Florida.

Arkansas: Razorback's first-year coach John Pelphrey was an assistant for Billy Donovan for eight years at Marshall and Florida. He learned well, even routing his old coach 80-61 last week. Arkansas has a dynamite defense, allowing 40% shooting. What's their secret? How about six seniors and four players listed at 6-foot-10 or taller.

The frontcourt has 6-6 senior Sonny Weems (14 ppg, 4.6 rpg), the leading scorer, along with board bangers 6-10 senior Darian Townes, 6-8 senior Charles Thomas and 7-foot senior center Steve Hill. The backcourt has a strong talent in junior guard Patrick Beverley (12 pp, 6.9 rpg), a terrific rebounder. Arkansas has a big game at Tennessee this week (Feb. 13). Note that the Razorbacks are 0-3 SU/ATS as a dog.

Vanderbilt: Vandy Head Coach Kevin Stallings has a team that can shoot the ball, averaging 82 ppg, which is why they started 10-3 over the total. 6-6 senior Shan Foster (19 ppg, 4.9 rpg) is an outstanding 3-point shooter, and teams with senior point guard Alex Gordon and 6-3 sophomore Jermaine Beal.

A huge addition has been 6-10 Andrew Oglivy, a polished offensive player from Australia, who has drawn comparisons to former Aussie Andruw Bogut. Oglivy is averaging over 17 points and 6.6 rebounds. However, when SEC play heated up, the Commodares went south, on a 1-4 SU/ATS run. This team has been great at home, as usual, but still struggles on the road, starting 2-4 SU, 1-4 ATS. An easy nonconference schedule can partly explain their 0-4 SU/ATS record as a dog.

Mississippi: Ole Miss is a strong offensive team, averaging 83 ppg, second in the SEC. They are tops in rebounding because of 6-8 junior Dwayne Curtis (15 ppg, 9 rpg) and 6-8 senior Kenny Williams (7.7 rpg). Freshman point guard Chris Warren and Eniel Polynice have been productive and combine for over 9 assists per game in this unselfish, uptempo attack.

One concern is that they've struggled on the road and got off to a 13-0 start with a weak nonconference slate. However, they have a winning record as a dog while going 4-1 ATS. Ole Miss has posted a 23-1 record at home since coach Adam Kennedy's arrival, losing only to Arkansas last season, but the Rebels did not play well in their last two road games, losses at Mississippi State and Auburn. If you make it to March, you have to know how to play on the road or at neutral sites.

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Situational Basketball Handicapping

2008-02-08T13:07:00.000-08:00

Situations can be just as important as matchups or trends when analyzing pro and college basketball games. Sometimes even more so. For instance, a team with outstanding rebounding ability, like the Pistons or Spurs, matchup-wise might have a clear defensive and rebounding edge going against an opponent with an undersized frontcourt, such as the Hawks or 76ers.

However, if San Antonio is playing at Atlanta in the second of a back to back spot, or playing their third road game in four nights, that is a situation that can present a large obstacle for the veteran Spurs, and the betting value could then shift to the rested home dog given the circumstances. These are all factors a good handicapper must balance when assessing each game. Here are some other facets of situational hoops handicapping.

Travel: How far does a team have to travel for this game? And how far have they traveled over the last few games? I adjust my power ratings if a team is flying across the country playing in the second of a back to back situation. A road trip from Miami to Atlanta, for example, is not that long a trip, but from Miami to Seattle is a long flight crossing several time zones.

Final Game of a Long Trip: Sometimes teams play their worst game at the end of a long road trip. Road travel can be a grind for college and pro teams, and at the end of a six-game trip, for instance, a team can many times be more interested in getting this game over with rather than putting forth an outstanding effort.

Second Game of a Back to Back Road Spot: A team is more likely to play a better game with one or more days of rest, than the second of a back to back spot, especially on the road.

First Game Home: Contrary to what you might think, a team doesn't always play its best game when they come home after a road trip of three or more games. Many times there are problems or decisions in family matters that are awaiting players. Wives have several things to run by their athlete-husbands, such as agents calling, or the kids are having problems in school and they need to meet with a school supervisor. Players may be glad a long trip is over, of course, but there can also be many headaches and decisions waiting at home to take players' minds away from his work

High Scoring Games: Since defense takes a lot of hard work, a team in the second of a back to back road spot is more likely to put forth a weaker effort defensively than when they are rested. If you're a totals player, look for spots where a team that likes to run is facing an opponent in the second of a back to back spot. If their strategy in the past has been to run at an opponent's tired legs, it could be a spot to look at over the total.

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One of College Basketball's Toughest Encore's

2008-02-08T13:06:00.000-08:00

Emotion plays a big part in sports. It doesn't matter if it's football, basketball or baseball, one team is usually "getting up" for another. Thankfully, this emotional part of the game exists because it leads sports handicappers and investors to an array of profitable opportunities. This specific technical situation is one of my favorites. It assembled from criteria that flat out works in the three major sports that I handicap. Here's a peek at a system that I call, "One of College Basketball's Toughest Encore's."

System: PLAY AGAINST any college basketball conference home favorite of -14 or more coming off a straight up road underdog win provided they are matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .500 or less.

Record Since 1990 = 103-63 ATS for 62.0 percent

This hardwood system preys on a letdown theory that has been making money in football, basketball and baseball over the years. Here we have a team installed as a high-priced home favorite that returns home off an emotional upset victory and finds itself matched up against an opponent it could probably beat in its sleep. If you simply look at the parameters that make up this technical situation, it's easy to understand why it makes money. Why would a team show an interest in pummeling an inferior opponent especially after pulling off a dramatic upset on the road? This emotional letdown makes perfect sense.

There are a few additional tighteners to this general situation that really make it pop. First, if our host smashed the pointspread in its last game and beat the line nine points or more, this system dips to a stiff 40-67 ATS. Obviously, if a team was undervalued before the linemaker will compensate for his mistake and could place too much value this time around. Also, with our 40-67 ATS in hand and our home team carrying a won/loss percentage of .590 or better, this unique situation crashes to a shocking 27-53 ATS. Obviously, the better teams have more trouble rebounding emotionally off that upset victory.

There is one additional parameter that really makes this system pop. Out of our 26-51 ATS set, this technical situation crashes to a woeful 17-39 ATS provided our "play on" team enters off a straight up loss. This makes perfect sense too. One team is off an emotional high and suffers a letdown while the other enters off a blemish and is locked into a rebound mode.

On Saturday's basketball card, there are two home favorites that could fit this technical situation and a couple of the tightener's involved: Drake and Utah State. Make sure the Bulldogs and Aggies are favored by at least -14 points or more! I'll be back next week with another awesome angle for you to use on your weekly assault with "the man". TS

College Hoops: Rivalry and Revenge Spots

2008-02-04T16:15:00.002-08:00

College basketball handicapping encompasses more than match-up angles and coaching. Home court, revenge, look-ahead spots and injuries all can be important factors when trying to determine who has the edge against the number. With conference play in full swing, revenge, rivalry and payback spots are all factors to be weighed. Last week I had a play on Syracuse when they were at Villanova.

In my analysis on the game I wrote, "Nova was a winner at the Carrier Dome in the season's first meeting with Syracuse, but the Orange should get some payback here. The Wildcats are in awful form right now, as they just can't seem to generate any kind of consistent offense. The youthful 'Cuse side should be all fired up for their chance to get revenge, and I expect them to accomplish their goal. Take the available number with Syracuse." That available number was +3.5 and the Orange not only covered but won the game with ease, 87-73.

The Orangemen shot 62% from the field while Villanova shot 44%. They also had a whopping edge on the glass, 33-18! That should come as no surprise, as Syracuse is third in the Big East in rebounding while Villanova is tied for 10th. In addition, it was the Wildcats' fourth straight loss, all by by double digits. The Wildcats also trailed at the break for the sixth straight game, so this was not a team playing with any kind of good karma or momentum, as I noted before the contest.

And it was a revenge spot, as Syracuse lost at home to Villanova 81-71 last month. Since that defeat, the Orange are on a 4-0 ATS run, even covering in an overtime loss at Georgetown, 64-62, as 12-point dogs. For the season, Syracuse has a winning ATS mark as a dog and on the road.

They wanted the game badly, too. Jonny Flynn and Paul Harris were yelling in the locker room to fire up their teammates. "Both Paul and Jonny came out talking from the locker room to start the game on," Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim said. "More than they have all year." The yelling continued in the Orange's on-court huddles. "During the timeouts and right after the timeouts," Syracuse forward Kristof Ongenaet said, "we'd start screaming at each other to keep each other motivated." Motivation is a powerful weapon in college athletics and one needs to look for spot where one team might be fired up more than normal.

Sometimes the best coaches are masters at firing up their players, while other teams, like Syracuse in that revenge game, the players lead the way. Other times, you'll find players and coaches talking about revenge before a big game, either from an early season loss or a painful loss from last season.

Injuries and revenge came into play in another game I had this weekend, when Dayton played at Rhode Island. Last month, Dayton shot 62 percent from the field in beating URI, 92-83, at the University of Dayton Arena. For the rematch, I wrote, "Dayton finally got back on track with an easy win over St. Louis. But the Flyers remain banged up and this is a huge revenge spot for URI. The Rams are the better team, at home and obviously motivated, and I expect the convincing Rhode Island win and cover here." In the rematch, Rhode Island was completely focused on improving their defense, winning 82-70 and covering. "I thought our defense really stepped up. We made some great defensive plays," Rhody coach Jim Baron said. They held Dayton to 42% while shooting 51.9%. The Flyers made just 2-of-15 3-pointers. That makes Rhode Island 12-0 SU 7-3, ATS at home. It was an excellent example of home court, an injured Dayton team, plus revenge all falling in line to heavily favor the home team.

Also, notice that HC Baron said about his home fans, a sellout crowd of 7,657: "This is the way it was when we walked into Dayton," Baron said of the crowd of more than 13,000 that rooted the Flyers to the victory in the first meeting. "It was nice for us to have that kind of environment," Baron said. "I hope we can continue it." That's something that doesn't show up in box scores, but can be evident when you see games in person or on TV: That college basketball home crowd advantage. It varies from place to place, of course, and some teams even have a minimal home court edge or none at all. But overall, home court, revenge and rivarly factors can be huge in college basketball.

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College Hoops Takes Center Stage

2008-02-04T16:15:00.001-08:00

With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, the next big event on the sports stage is college basketball's season-ending tournaments. Since 1997, college basketball's national champion has come from several different conferences: the Pac 10 (Arizona), SEC (Kentucky and Florida), Big 10 (Michigan State), the ACC (Duke, Maryland, North Carolina), and the Big East (UConn, Syracuse). Over the next few weeks, let's examine some of the top hoop teams in each conference, starting this week with the ACC.

North Carolina: What an explosive team fourth-year coach Roy Williams has! The Tar Heels average 91 points with a 12-deep rotation that runs right at opponents. 6-9 junior Tyler Hansbrough (22 ppg, 10 rpg) leads in scoring and rebounding, while two sophomore guards have been outstanding in Wayne Ellington (16 ppg) and Ty Lawson (14 ppg). The Tar Heels are tops in the nation in rebounding and second in points.

There is strong depth up front with 6-5 junior Danny Green (12 ppg, 5.2 rpg), 6-8 sophomore Deon Thompson and 6-9 sophomore Alex Stepheson (6.4 ppg). Talk about youth and talent! All that offense is why they started 12-5 over the total. They have two big meetings with Duke on tap, one this week and one in the regular season finale.

Duke: Coach Mike Krzyzewski has another talented team that is flexing its ACC muscles again. A year ago there were no senior starters and they got upset by VCU in March, so it was a bit of a disappointing 22-11 campaign. This season Duke senior guard DeMarcus Nelson leads the team with 14.8 points and 6 rebounds per contest.

This is not a great rebounding team, as Coach K is back to a more guard-oriented attack with 6-5 sophomore Jon Scheyer, 6-4 sophomore Gerald Henderson, Jr (13 ppg) and freshman Kyle Singler. They were a dog to Illinois and won 79-66 on a neutral court, before losing to Pitt in OT, 65-64. In the loss to Pitt they got outrebounded 49-31, something to keep an eye on when they face strong low post teams.

Boston College: The Eagles have been about balance and rugged frontcourt play under Al Skinner. They've lost a lot of talent the last two years, but they still have a power frontcourt with rotund 6-6 sophomore Shamari Spears (11 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and 6-11 senior center Tyrelle Blair. BC is tops in the ACC in blocks per game, over 7.

The backcourt has a terrific scorer and playmaker in junior guard Tyrese Rice (20 ppg, 5 apg), plus 6-5 freshman Rakim Sanders (12 ppg), the second leading scorer. They started 9-3 over the total with a strong offense. Sports bettors take note: BC is just 4-11 straight up and 6-9 against the spread as an underdog the last two years.

Virginia Tech: Despite starting 12-6 over the total, Seth Greenberg's Hokies are a strong defensive team, allowing 40% shooting. They have a frontcourt that is more hard working than tall, led by 6-7 senior Deron Washington, who is second in scoring (12 ppg) and rebounding (6.6 rpg). A key has been 6-7 freshman Jeff Allen, a transfer who has stepped in as the top rebounder (12.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg).

In a big win over BC last week in OT, 81-73, the Hokies outrebounded the best rebounding team in the ACC, 51-42, and held BC to 39 percent shooting from the field. 6-6 junior G/F A.D. Vassallo (16 ppg) leads in scoring and chips in 5 boards per contest. Two weaknesses are that they are not a strong road team, nor very good as a dog.

Clemson: The Tigers are about offense, 13-6 over the total with a strong one-two backcourt punch of 6-5 junior K.C. Rivers (15 ppg) and freshman Terrence Oglesby (11 ppg). They are one of the top teams in the ACC in shooting, rebounds and NO. 1 in steals, getting over 10 thefts per game.

The frontcourt is deep behind 6-9 junior James Mays (11 ppg, 7 rpg) and 6-7, 240-pound sophomore center Trevor Booker (12 ppg, 8 rpg). Clemson was criticized for a weak schedule a year ago during their 17-0 start. This season they started 10-0 as a dog only once, beating Mississippi State 84-82. Still, rebounding was a problem last season, but not so this year for the Tigers.

Jim Feist offering the guarantee Basketball Picks and NBA Predictions editorials

Recent History vs Season Totals

2008-02-04T16:14:00.002-08:00

Understand that oddsmakers base their numbers in large part on stats. The Golden State Warriors, for example, average 112 ppg at home with their uptempo style. On the road, though, they average just 106 ppg. So when making a side or total, the oddsmaker has to factor in the difference whether that team is home or away. The Warriors are 13-8 over the total at home, 12-10 under on the road.

But when we are this far along in the NBA season, for me it's more important to examine recent games rather than seasonal stats. Take the New Jersey Nets (please). The Nets had a stretch starting in late December when they went an impressive 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS.

However, how have the Nets been playing since that run? Awful! 0-9 SU, 1-8 against the number! They were a favorite at Minnesota, but blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead in a loss. They also had a seven-point cushion with 79 seconds left, and let it slip away against a 7-35 team.

Players were shook up after the game, too. "This was a game we wanted," said Vince Carter. "We wanted to close out the trip on a high note." Jason Kidd's trade request became public knowledge that same day, too, so this is not a happy or confident team. "It's disheartening," Jason Kidd added. "We've had some tough games on this trip, where we were down by a lot of points and fought back to get it within single digits. This game is the total opposite. We were in control and in the end we let it get away."

So if you look at the overall wins and losses since December, the Nets appear to be a .500 team. But looking at it a different way finds something more revealing.

Getting back to the Warriors, the rumors are swirling about Chris Webber returning to the team. Why? They don't have enough rebounders up front. Coach Don Nelson acknowledged his intentions of reuniting with Webber the same day that Biedrins pulled down 26 rebounds against the Knicks! Impressive, but it also reveals a weakness, as Nelson has only two options at center: Biedrins and the undersized Al Harrington. I make notes of things like that because the Warriors may have gotten a win, but what's going happen when they face a strong rebounding team?

Injuries can also change how a team plays if it's too a key player. Boston was a road favorite at Orlando, but then the Magic became the favorite when Kevin Garnett had to sit out with a strained rib. I recall a year ago the Milwaukee Bucks started off the season with a lot of young legs and an uptempo game under coach Terry Porter. But along the way their guard depth took several hits. Playmaker T.J. Ford missed several weeks with an injury, along with guard Mo Williams. It was evident that their offense also suffered, going on a string under the total.

On Sunday I had a play on the Kings/Sonics under the total, noting that, "The Kings enter here off a horrendous defensive performance in a 127-113 loss at Utah. Sacramento allowed the Jazz to post an offensive efficiency mark of 139.7 their worst showing of the season. The previous defensive low came November 27th at Phoenix and the Kings followed that up with a 171 point output at Portland, 33 points below the posted total.

"Sacramento has dropped the first two games of this three game road trip after losing 111-85 at the LA Clippers. Seattle has now lost 13 straight games and there are signs that star rookie Kevin Durant is hitting the proverbial wall. Considering that this team lacks many scoring options the Durant slump is really magnified. With home games against Cleveland and San Antonio to finish off the month the Sonics need a victory here big time. P.J. Carlesimo is smart enough to not want to run with the Kings. His best shot at victory is to slow the pace and play tight defense. The last meeting between these two resulted in a 104-98 Sacramento victory. We see a similar outcome here, play the under." It sailed under by double digits.

Again, recent history paints a better picture of where a team is than overall stats. If you're looking for a time frame to reference, 2 to 3 weeks is always safe. But that can be stretched out to months, as well. Segment your handicapping all season long, don't just look at the whole bundle of season stats.

Do check out our guarantee Basketball Picks section for more information and other NBA Picks editorials

2008-02-04T16:14:00.001-08:00

So if you look at the overall wins and losses since December, the Nets appear to be a .500 team. But looking at it a different way finds something more revealing.

Do check out our guarantee Basketball Picks section for more information and other NBA Picks editorials

Handicapping NBA Injuries

2008-01-31T14:02:00.000-08:00

When injuries to key players happen in the NBA, oddsmakers certainly pay attention. No Shaq in Miami? The line most definitely will be adjusted, many times significantly. No Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady in Houston? Absolutely that will cause an adjustment.

However, one needs to analyze each team very carefully when deciding to wager on or against clubs that have key injuries. Last year Miami without Shaq was a disaster. This season, the Heat WITH or WITHOUT Shaq has been a disaster! O'Neal will try to return this season from a hip and quadriceps injury that is expected to keep him out for at least two more weeks.

O'Neal had two of his better games after recent treatment, with 24 points and 10 rebounds against Chicago last week followed by 20 points and 11 rebounds against Portland. But what was the result? Two more losses and non-covers, 98-91 and 126-96. His production tailed off after that, and he had just 10 points and five rebounds in each of the next two games, which they failed to win or cover. You have to wonder if the Miami front office was disappointed that O'Neal indicated that he will not retire before his contract expires at the end of the 2009-2010 season, which pays $20 million annually. Rebuilding or going in a new direction? Not with that price tag hanging over the franchise.

Other times it can make a difference. A year ago, no Yao and T-Mac took 48.7 points per game out of the Houston lineup. That influenced both the side and total. The Rockets played without McGrady earlier in the season and went 2-5. They were 13-38 without McGrady or Yao two years ago and started 1-9 over two seasons when playing without both All-Stars.

Yet, last season they went a dozen games without Yao and posted a 9-3 mark. What happened is role players stepped in and did a credible job, particularly backup center Dikembe Mutmombo. Miami didn't have that luxury this year, with talented backup center Alonzo Mourning done for the season. And that's the real key with injuries: Does a team have a decent backup player to throw in there?

The Denver Nuggets recently lost star Carmelo Anthony. But their first game without him was a win and cover, 107-100 over Atlanta, their sixth straight home win. Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby stepped up as the Nuggets got more than just five players into the scoring column, led by Allen Iverson's 29 points. Camby's 13 points came with 21 rebounds while Martin played one of his best games of the season, with 20 points and 10 rebounds.

According to Martin, "Everybody has to pick up the production in Anthony's absence. Melo's a great player," Martin said. "We're going to miss him. But everybody has to pick up the slack." In addition, against the Hawks, the Nuggets played one of their better defensive games of the month. They clamped down on Hawks' leading scorer, Joe Johnson, limiting the 22 points-per-game player to 14. He did not score a point in the first quarter, missing all six shots he attempted. Johnson finished 5-of-17 from the field. As a team, Atlanta shot 39.2 percent from the field.

When key players are injured, good teams can adjust, be it the coaching staff asking players to play tougher defense, or talented role players can step in and help out.

A year ago the New Jersey Nets stumbled for a while when center Nenad Krstic and his 16 points, 6 rebounds per game was lost for the season after 26 games. Yet, the Nets then got on a role at 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS over 9 games. Why? Unsung 7-footer Mikki Moore stepped into the breach and was very effective. In seven straight starts, Moore averaged 13.6 points, 9.0 rebounds and is shooting 70.7 percent from the field in 34.4 minutes. The Nets went 5-2 in that stretch.

What's important for handicappers to understand is that each injury affects teams differently. The Celtics, for instance, were banged up badly a year ago and fell apart without star Paul Pierce. They started a miserable 4-13 SU/ATS at home: talk about a go-against team!

This is why depth is so important, along with coaching. Coaches can get the attitude through to players that they are professionals: Get out their and do your job. Some teams handle it better than others. In the world of handicapping, examine each team carefully when major trades take place or when key injuries happen. Different teams respond differently, both straight up and against the number.

Bryan Leonard offering the best NBA and Basketball Picks editorials. Great insightful news most updated

College Basketball's Biggest Key

2008-01-30T14:14:00.000-08:00

We take a week away from football as we await the Super Bowl that's coming up in the first weekend of February. My next article will talk about strategies for handicapping the big game and various propositions. Today, we take our first look at basketball for the 2007-08 season. I know many of you are starting to follow this sport very closely now. I wanted to make sure you were focused on the single biggest handicapping factor. Before I tell you, do you think you can guess what it is? Coaching? Talent? Pointspread histories? Experience? All of those things are important. But they're important because they all relate to the one key area that triggers most college basketball results.

DEFENSE

Right now, team defense is the single most important factor driving results in this sport. The most successful coaches are the ones that emphasize defense. The teams with the best talent only win if they play defense, and are often upset in the Big Dance when they don't. Pointspread histories are directly correlated to quality defense because the oddsmakers and public don't spend enough time looking at it! Experience matters most because more experienced players grasp the nuances of team defensive rotations much better than newcomers do. I was listening to a radio show the other day, and a guy made a selection in a college basketball game.

When explaining his reasons, all he did was talk about how great the team's star player was. That was it! He made a pick because the best player on a team was really good. That's not handicapping! That's not even basketball. That's just the starting point. A team with a star tries to find a way to get him the ball. The opposing defense comes up with a way to slow him down or stop him. If you're a TV network trying to "sell" a game, then you talk about the stars. If you're a handicapper trying to predict an outcome, you've got to dig much deeper than bragging about a star player. Dick Vitale wouldn't last a week as a handicapper in Vegas.

If you watch basketball closely, you'll find that most results are keyed by the STOPPING of what other teams are trying to do. That's why we've seen so many low scoring games the past few years. Here's what you should be looking at when watching games or reading boxscores:

*Defensive field goal percentage: Are opponents finding it easy to get open looks, or are they forcing up bad shots. When you watch games on TV, look at the defensive rotations and hustle. When you read the boxscores, look at field goal percentage allowed. I really like focusing on what happens on just the two-point shots because three-point shooting blows so hot and cold. If a team defends the paint well, they're going to be a good value bet against Vegas lines over the long haul.

*Turnovers forced: You often hear announcers talk about how important it is to have an experienced point guard. It's important because defenses will abuse teams who don't! It would help if announcers turned around their emphasis. If they constantly pointed out that defenses are aggressively trying to force turnovers, then viewers would be thinking more about defense. Instead, it's like turnovers are accidents that happen to inexperienced players. Turnovers are FORCED by defenses. Watch for this on telecasts, and look up the turnover counts in the boxscores.

*Defensive rebounds: This is a vital part of defense because it snaps off second chance opportunities. A defensive rebound is a virtual forced turnover because it ends the opponent's possession with no points being scored. In the big picture, there's not that big a difference between intercepting a pass, and grabbing a rebound off a miss. Same end result. This is really important in big games between top teams because each possession is so important. Many highly regarded seeds struggle during March Madness because this is a weakness. They were able to hide it against soft schedules or because they had a good year from three-point land. When the games really matter, rebounding is HUGE.

I promise that you'll be very pleased with your results if you start focusing your handicapping efforts on team defense. There's nothing wrong with following the star players as a fan. And, I'm not recommending against many of the techniques you may already be using. I think you'll find that they're directly tied to defense in the first place. Devoting your energy to studying defenses will get you quickly to the truths about the game that coaching, experience, and pointspread results are already hinting at. You can't beat the spread if your defense-less!

Basketball Picks all the way courtesy of Scott Spreitzer

College Basketball Defense!

2008-01-28T14:40:00.001-08:00

Courtesy of Dave Cokin

Coming into this season, the Tennessee Volunteers were loaded, with four starters back to a team that led Ohio State by 20 in March before folding in the wake of a Sweet 16 appearance. Coach Bruce Pearl likes an uptempo style and this season they are averaging 86 ppg. A year ago they averaged 81 ppg behind a three-guard lineup. That uptempo attack is why they went 17-9 over the total two years ago and 19-13 over the total last season.

However, that came at a cost: The Vols ranked last in the SEC in scoring defense (75.1 points per game), last in field-goal percentage (.457) and last in rebounding defense. "No doubt," coach Bruce Pearl said before the season, "defense is the area where we can show the greatest improvement and have the most impact." In addition, Tennessee was a poor 3-7 SU/ATS away from home.

Well the Vols have improved in both categories significantly. Defense is such an important, sometimes even overlooked, aspect of winning. During their 16-1 start the Vols allowed 68 points per contest and 42% shooting by opponents, while still retaining their uptempo style averging 86 ppg. This is significant from a handicapping perspective because oddsmakers and the general public focus on offense first. Tennessee's defense has been overlooked undervalued this season, starting 8-5 under the total, after being an over machine the last two years. That improved defense is why the Vols are suddenly a good road team, winning their first 5 road games while also starting 3-0 SU/ATS as a dog.

A year ago Ohio State defeated the Vols 85-84 in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in San Antonio even though the Vols led by 17 points at halftime. UT had a chance to win, but Ramar Smith had a shot blocked by Greg Oden as time expired. It is possible to expend energy on improving team defense without sacrificing offense, which is essentially what is happening with the Vols. Here's a peak at some other improved defensive teams in college basketball and how that has influenced totals.

Ohio State: Even without Oden, the Buckeyes are still a strong defensive team, allowing 37% shooting. While they are not a good road team, Ohio State started 9-5 under the total.

VCU: The Rams are on a nice role in the Colonial Athletic Association, getting it done with defense allowing 59 ppg and 37% shooting. After holding Georgia State to 47 points in a 49-47 win, VCU Head Coach Anthony Grant said, "This was basketball 101 today." Impressive also in that it was their first home game in 26 days. The Rams are 10-4 under the total.

Georgetown: The Hoyas are a fierce defensive team once again, allowing 36% shooting with a dominant low post force in 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert. They took on another defensive powerhouse last week and lost 69-60 to rival Pitt in a game that went under the total. Hibbert had 12 points on just 3-of-7 shooting, while DaJuan Summers, the Hoyas' second-leading scorer, failed to score, missing all seven shots he attempted. Fifth-ranked Georgetown was just 3 of 20 from beyond the arc (15 percent)! Georgetown allows 57 ppg and started 8-4 under the total. Keep in mind that big games and key conference tilts down the stretch can bring out the best in defensive teams.

Louisville: Rick Pitino knows how to teach defense, especially on the perimeter. That's what made a 92-82 upset loss to Seton Hall so shocking. Pirate freshman Jeremy Hazell had a ridiculously hot hand, drilling eight three-pointers and scored 29 points. That's also not the norm for Louisville. The Cardinals allow just 37% shooting from the field and 60 ppg. That's why Louisville is 11-5 under the total. Seton Hall shot 62.5 percent in the second half and 50 percent for the game, clearly an aberration. After that loss Pitino shrugged, "They made shots from ranges that we can't even reach the basket."

San Diego State: Don't ignore smaller schools, as oddsmakers can't accurately gauge every team in the nation accurately. SDSU has been impressive defensively. They just torched Wyoming 70-43. Ranked third in the Mountain West in scoring offense at 70 points per game, Wyoming trailed 26-3. Wyoming scored its first basket with 10:39 remaining before intermission, shot 13.0 percent (3-for-23) from the floor in the first half and was 0-for-8 from three-point range. SDSU allows 61 ppg and is 11-4 under the total, including a perfect 7-0 under at home! Improved defense helps a team win on the court, and you to win at the window, either through sides or totals.

Funny Basketball Moment

2008-01-22T14:49:00.000-08:00

Brought to you by funny-potato.com

NBA Home/Road Dichotomy

2008-01-22T14:45:00.001-08:00

There's often a significant difference in basketball handicapping with home/road play and stats. Not only scoring and defensive stats, but wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread. One key variable to take into account is experience. Take a look at what Detroit Pistons guard Chauncey Billups said last week: "Anytime we come back, and I don't care who we play, off a four-game trip with a split. We're an elite team and we feel like we can win in anybody's building." That's a comment that exudes confidence.

Veteran teams, like the Pistons, can win anywhere. The biggest part of that is talent, of course, but it's also confidence. Success breeds confidence and veteran players are more likely to have it than young players. The Pistons are a veteran team that have been through a lot of wars, including two trips to the Finals in 2004 and 2005. This season, the Pistons started an impressive 15-7 SU, 13-8 ATS on the road.

The Celtics went from being a very young team the last two years to one suddenly loaded with experience because of the trades for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Notice what Boston coach Doc Rivers said: "You want to avoid that at all times. The bottom like is you don't want to lose home games. We want to win all our home games." He knows the importance of holding home court, but notice this veteran team, like the Pistons, started an impressive 14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS on the road.

Most teams can't put up those kind of road numbers, however. Stacking a team with talent and experience is hard to do, especially these days with so many teams, so little talent and so many players leaving early from college.

The Minnesota Timberwolves, for instance, are in rebuilding mode with a ton of kids. It's no surprise the T-Wolves lost 18 of their first 19 road games. This is also commonplace in college hoops. It's important to focus on where the site that a basketball game is being played, especially with college basketball conference play taking place. Spend some time going through the records, straight up and against the spread, of your favorite college and pro hoops teams and you'll be amazed at some of the differences.

Some college teams will shoot lights out at home, averaging 78 points per game. Yet, the same players can turn into certified masons on the road averaging 59 points per game. Several things are taking place. For serious sports bettors, it's important to identify these valuable wagering facets, apply meaning, and incorporate into your handicapping.

A team like Utah has a nice crop of talent, but also has youth. This season the Jazz started 16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS at home. Yet, a very different team shows up on the road, starting 6-15 SU, 5-15 ATS! A year ago, before their red-hot run down the stretch, the young Golden State Warriors were a .500 team overall, but digging deeper into the stats revealed something important. A closer look found that the young Warriors were a sizzling 14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS at home, but a miserable 4-13 SU, 7-10 ATS on the road. Not all teams that this extreme, of course, but it's essential to understand that home/road breakdown is most important when examining basketball handicapping.

One of the best examples I ever found was the Denver Nuggets in 2000-01. That season, the Nuggets were an average team with a 40-42 overall record. But going a step further, something remarkable takes shape: Denver had a winning spread record at home where they were 29-12 straight up, yet on the road, a completely different team showed up, where the Nuggets were 11-30 straight up and 16-25 against the spread!

There are many reasons as to why this takes place. One is pride, as team want to play all out to defend their home turf. Another reason is emotion as the home crowd will be rooting for their team to give 100%. This is why opposing coaches are so quick to call a time out when they see the home crowd going wild, as they want to stem that momentum before the game gets away.

Confidence and being comfortable are two other reasons. Teams at home are comfortable with the surroundings, the arena, the lighting, etc. They practice and prepare each day in that same arena, so going on the road things can change completely.

And experience is the other factor to grasp. Professional handicappers take careful note of rosters and identify which teams have an excess of youth and ones that have experience. The young Charlotte Bobcats started this season 13-11 SU, 13-10-1 ATS at home, but 2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS away.

From a bettor's perspective this offers opportunities "to play on" a young team at home and "go against them" when traveling. When a talented young team begins to start to win and cover on the road, that can be an excellent opportunity to begin backing that group before oddsmakers catch up. But until they turn that corner, be careful and examine home/road stats VERY carefully!

Brought to you by Bryan Leonard

College Basketball Defense!

2008-01-21T12:57:00.000-08:00

Coming into this season, the Tennessee Volunteers were loaded, with four starters back to a team that led Ohio State by 20 in March before folding in the wake of a Sweet 16 appearance. Coach Bruce Pearl likes an uptempo style and this season they are averaging 86 ppg. A year ago they averaged 81 ppg behind a three-guard lineup. That uptempo attack is why they went 17-9 over the total two years ago and 19-13 over the total last season.

However, that came at a cost: The Vols ranked last in the SEC in scoring defense (75.1 points per game), last in field-goal percentage (.457) and last in rebounding defense. "No doubt," coach Bruce Pearl said before the season, "defense is the area where we can show the greatest improvement and have the most impact." In addition, Tennessee was a poor 3-7 SU/ATS away from home.

Well the Vols have improved in both categories significantly. Defense is such an important, sometimes even overlooked, aspect of winning. During their 16-1 start the Vols allowed 68 points per contest and 42% shooting by opponents, while still retaining their uptempo style averging 86 ppg. This is significant from a handicapping perspective because oddsmakers and the general public focus on offense first. Tennessee's defense has been overlooked undervalued this season, starting 8-5 under the total, after being an over machine the last two years. That improved defense is why the Vols are suddenly a good road team, winning their first 5 road games while also starting 3-0 SU/ATS as a dog.

A year ago Ohio State defeated the Vols 85-84 in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in San Antonio even though the Vols led by 17 points at halftime. UT had a chance to win, but Ramar Smith had a shot blocked by Greg Oden as time expired. It is possible to expend energy on improving team defense without sacrificing offense, which is essentially what is happening with the Vols. Here's a peak at some other improved defensive teams in college basketball and how that has influenced totals.

Ohio State: Even without Oden, the Buckeyes are still a strong defensive team, allowing 37% shooting. While they are not a good road team, Ohio State started 9-5 under the total.

VCU: The Rams are on a nice role in the Colonial Athletic Association, getting it done with defense allowing 59 ppg and 37% shooting. After holding Georgia State to 47 points in a 49-47 win, VCU Head Coach Anthony Grant said, "This was basketball 101 today." Impressive also in that it was their first home game in 26 days. The Rams are 10-4 under the total.

Georgetown: The Hoyas are a fierce defensive team once again, allowing 36% shooting with a dominant low post force in 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert. They took on another defensive powerhouse last week and lost 69-60 to rival Pitt in a game that went under the total. Hibbert had 12 points on just 3-of-7 shooting, while DaJuan Summers, the Hoyas' second-leading scorer, failed to score, missing all seven shots he attempted. Fifth-ranked Georgetown was just 3 of 20 from beyond the arc (15 percent)! Georgetown allows 57 ppg and started 8-4 under the total. Keep in mind that big games and key conference tilts down the stretch can bring out the best in defensive teams.

Louisville: Rick Pitino knows how to teach defense, especially on the perimeter. That's what made a 92-82 upset loss to Seton Hall so shocking. Pirate freshman Jeremy Hazell had a ridiculously hot hand, drilling eight three-pointers and scored 29 points. That's also not the norm for Louisville. The Cardinals allow just 37% shooting from the field and 60 ppg. That's why Louisville is 11-5 under the total. Seton Hall shot 62.5 percent in the second half and 50 percent for the game, clearly an aberration. After that loss Pitino shrugged, "They made shots from ranges that we can't even reach the basket."

San Diego State: Don't ignore smaller schools, as oddsmakers can't accurately gauge every team in the nation accurately. SDSU has been impressive defensively. They just torched Wyoming 70-43. Ranked third in the Mountain West in scoring offense at 70 points per game, Wyoming trailed 26-3. Wyoming scored its first basket with 10:39 remaining before intermission, shot 13.0 percent (3-for-23) from the floor in the first half and was 0-for-8 from three-point range. SDSU allows 61 ppg and is 11-4 under the total, including a perfect 7-0 under at home! Improved defense helps a team win on the court, and you to win at the window, either through sides or totals

Brought to you by Dave Cokin best Basketball Picks site

Embarrassing Basketball Moments

2008-01-17T13:02:00.000-08:00

Jim Feist's basketball picks will not put you in an embarrassing situation

2008-01-17T12:03:00.000-08:00

Provided by Bryan Leonard the best Basketball Picks and College Basketball Picks information

A key to deciphering basketball point spreads and totals is finding out what is going on inside a team. Stats can only tell you so much. Are the players passionate? Is the coach competent? Does one injury make a difference? Or will an injury bury a team for a stretch?

Find out what players and coaches are saying is an excellent way to get inside the huddle and practices of teams. However, one must weigh quotes with caution and careful thinking. Because sometimes talk is cheap and doesn't mean anything.

For instance, last week Knicks coach Isiah Thomas said he is confident he will remain on the bench through the end of the season. Can anybody read that quote without giggling? He later said, "I don't think right now I will find anyone who is more committed or passionate about making this thing right and fixing it than myself."

Thomas is due to get fired soon, if owner Charles Dolan ever comes out of his coma. Dolan has not commented on Thomas' job status since giving him a contract extension last March worth a reported $24 million. The Knicks are 13-41 since Thomas received the extension. Why do pro ownerships do this? The Ravens gave Brian Billick a contract extension last January, and regretted it by recently firing him.

Before the season, Clipper coach Mike Dunleavy said he expected the team to compete for one of the Western Conference's final playoff seedings even without Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston. But again, talk is cheap. The Clippers started 5-19 SU, 10-14 ATS as a dog and with an overall losing record both straight up and against the number. "The approach now is, you are in distress mode," Dunleavy said recently. "Get the life preservers; throw them out, save people right now. We are trying to save ourselves." That's more accurate and candid!

Speaking of talk being cheap, how about the Miami Heat's theme coming into the new season: One team, one theme, redemption. Ha! It should be "One injured center, one overpaid no-show center, and a lot of flotsam." Coach Pat Riley recently said he spoke with Shaquille O'Neal about team and individual challenges, stressing that O'Neal must "do what he has to do to help us win." Miami has been a mess all season and just 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS as a favorite.

There's been a lot of talk going on in Chicago, but the results have been impressive. Chicago has a new coach in Jim Boylan starting 5-3 after underachieving under Scott Skiles. Boyland has encouraged that his players to call team meetings if he thinks it will help. Players-only meetings usually take place after a particularly tough loss or stretch of losing, but Bulls veterans Adrian Griffin and Ben Wallace wanted the team to talk some things over Saturday after a 100-97 victory Friday at Philadelphia.

"Our two elder statesmen -- Adrian and Ben -- they brought everybody together and just said their little piece," Joe Smith said of the short and to-the-point meeting that took place after the Bulls' practice. "Hopefully, we can take something from it. Even after a win, at times, you still need to talk about some things that may have went wrong."

The Bulls fell behind by 18 points to the 76ers in the first quarter, but bounced back through the second and third quarters and led by 16 before escaping with the victory. They players were loose and in good spirits at practice the next day.

Sometimes talk is very real, other times it's a smoke screen. It's up to the handicapper to be able to sift through what is real and what is phony. Speaking of phony, Isiah Thomas said recently, "There are players and coaches who have laid foundations and played in organizations where there's a certain standard that's been set, but they didn't necessarily get the ring for it." Is this guy delusional? He's made a complete mess of the situation he inherited! Again, take all talk you find with a grain of salt. But don't ignore it, either, because it can help identify which teams might be turning a corner and start covering numbers.

NBA Early Season Surprises

2007-11-26T15:03:00.000-08:00

NBA Predictions courtesy of Jim Feist.com

Preseason prognosticators and handicapping analysis focuses in on what they expect to happen, based on the draft and offseason moves, but there are always surprises at the start of each season. Here's a look at some of the early pleasant surprises of the NBA season.

Celtics: On paper, it doesn't take a lot of moves to go from worst to first in the weak East. Boston is putting this to the test after making the most waves in the offseason. GM Danny Ainge basically shipped out a truckload of kids with potential to bring established veterans Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to play alongside Paul Pierce. They were expected to be very good, but they've been even better.

I had the Celtics as my Game of the Week the first week of the season. In their home opener, with great fanfare, they destroyed Washington 103-83, covering by double-digits. That was the start of an 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS beginning to the season. Reports are that Pierce, Garnett and Allen like each other and get along on and off the court. Perhaps most impressive is their team defense: Boston allows 41% shooting by opponents, tops in the NBA. They started 5-2 under the total, as well.

Magic: Orlando is also playing defense, just behind Boston in the East allowing 42% shooting. They also have been beasts on the road, starting 7-0 SU/ATS, and a sizzling 5-1 SU/ATS as a dog. What gives? It's a very different team. Orlando hired Stan Van Gundy as coach meaning the Magic would emphasize defense. The club acquired Rashard Lewis as a $118-million free agent and recently made a trade for power forward Brian Cook and guard Maurice Evans from the Lakers.

Lewis is getting his 20 ppg, but the main man up front is 6-11 Dwight Howard, who turns 22 in December. He came to camp ready to play and is leading the team with over 22 points and 14 boards per game. It's not difficult to picture MVP trophies in this kid's future.

Bobcats: The young Charlotte Bobcats have excellent building blocks with Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton and Emaka Okafur. Into this mix they added Jason Richardson from the Warriors and the results have been very good. Offense was a problem last season, and still is, which is why they traded for Richardson. Most impressive, though, has been the defense, allowing 93 ppg. Charlotte started 7-3 under the total. Many young teams often begin to play better at home but it takes a while before they learn to win on the road. Keep in mind that the Bobcats started 5-2 SU/ATS at home, but 1-2 SU/ATS on the road.

Nuggets: Two things are surprising about the Denver Nuggets. One is that they got off to a fast start despite having many of the same injuries as a year ago. Anthony Carter, Chucky Atkins, Nene Hilario and Steven Hunter are out of action and often-injured Kenyon Martin is hobbling again. There are no secrets with this team: They run like crazy behind Carmelo Anthony (25 ppg) and Allen Iverson (24.5 ppg). This is the highest scoring team in the NBA.

The other surprise is that they are playing defense. George Karl has been on his players in practice about playing tough defense, and on the court the results are there. Denver allows opponents 43% shooting - only the Lakers are better in the West. That old Mile High altitude advantage appears to have returned: Denver started 4-1 SU/ATS at home.

New Orleans: This is a talented young team, led by Chris Paul (19 ppg, 10.8 apg) and David West (19 ppg). They have two stars, two young role players in backboard machine Tyson Chandler and Morris Peterson, plus an old veteran in Peja Stojakovic, who thus far is healthy. Most impressive about this group is the defense, allowing 91 ppg. New Orleans started 8-4 under the total.