Without question, the NCAA Tournament is the best sporting event in the nation. If you're not a fan of March Madness, then something is seriously wrong! College basketball's National Championship is at stake and 65 teams know that the first to six wins will walk away with the prize.
College coaches break this tournament down into two-game affairs. Win the first two and then move on to the Sweet 16. Win the next two and then skip to the Final Four. Win those two and you're the National Champion. As a handicapper, I've taken a similar approach and broken down the tournament and looked at each round individually. My discoveries have been profitable and well worth the time invested.
Below you'll find an inside look at the first round of the NCAA Tournament and the breakdown of how the seeded teams perform against each other. These games tip off on Thursday and Friday, March 20th and 21st.
There are also four very solid Round 1 Tournament Situations that are in play as well. Best of luck in the first round of the NCAA Tournament men.
Please note: All records below are from the 1990-91 season unless noted.
NCAA TOURNAMENT SEED INFORMATION
#1 SEED vs #16 SEED = 68-0 SU and 37-30-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #1 seed is off a SU and ATS win .5? 20-12 ATS .5? Play ON Kansas and Memphis.
2. If #1 seed has a won/loss percentage =.833 and <.933 .5? 29-15-1 ATS .5? Play ON Kansas and UCLA (21-6 ATS if #1 seed of BB SU wins .5? Jayhawks and Bruins apply.)
#2 SEED vs #15 SEED = 64-4 SU and 29-37-2 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #2 seed covered by 10 points or more last .5? 5-8-1 ATS .5? Play AGAINST No Plays This Year.
2. If #2 seed owns a won/loss percentage = .865 .5? 5-10-1 ATS .5? Play AGAINST Tennessee.
3. If #2 seed is favored by 18 or more: 16-25-1 ATS, Play AGAINST Duke and Tennessee.
#3 SEED vs #14 SEED = 59-9 SU and 34-33-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #3 seed is off a SU loss as a favorite .5? 18-7-1 ATS: Play ON Xavier and Louisville (13-1-1 ATS if #3 seed lost to the line by 10 points or more last, Xavier and Louisville BOTH apply).
2. If #3 seed enters off back-to-back SU wins: 4-14 ATS (Since .5?93) .5? Play AGAINST Wisconsin.
#4 SEED vs #13 SEED = 50-5-13 SU and 39-28-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #4 seed is a favorite of .5?9 or less, 25-12 ATS: Play ON Washington State and Vanderbilt.
2. If #4 seed is off a SU loss .5? 30-10-1 ATS (Since .5?93) .5? Play ON (19-2 ATS if #4 seed is favored by -9 or less .5? Washington State and Vanderbilt BOTH apply).
#5 SEED vs #12 SEED = 46-22 SU and 35-33 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #5 seed owns a won/loss percentage = .710 .5? 17-9 ATS .5? Play ON No Plays This Year.
2. If #5 seed is favored by -5' or more: 22-14 ATS, Play ON Notre Dame, Michigan State and Clemson.
#6 SEED vs #11 SEED = 49-19 SU and 39-28-1 ATS
Key Trends:
1. If #6 seed enters off a SU loss of 13 points or more .5? 10-3 ATS .5? Play ON Oklahoma.
#7 SEED vs #10 SEED .5? 39-29 SU and 38-29-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #7 seed is an underdog .5? 12-6-1 ATS .5? Play ON Gonzaga.
2. If #7 seed owns a won/loss percentage = .680 .5? 22-10-1 ATS .5? Play ON West Virginia, Gonzaga, Miami FL and Butler.
#8 SEED vs #9 SEED = 31-37 SU and 31-36-1 ATS
Key Trends
1. If #8 seed is off back-to-back SU wins: 3-6 ATS .5? Play AGAINST UNLV.
NCAA TOURNAMENT SUPER SITUATIONS
1. #10 seeds or higher that are favored in the first round of the NCAA Tournament are a wallet breaking 9-17-1 ATS. Play AGAINST Davidson.
2. NCAA Tournament 1st Round teams priced as a favorite of .5?5 to an underdog with a won/loss percentage of =.667 are a shocking 16-33-2 ATS if they.5?re entering the tourney off back-to-back ATS wins. Play AGAINST Georgia, Temple, San Diego and Davidson. (Make that 6-24-1 ATS if their opponent checks in off a SU loss .5? Georgia, Temple, San Diego and Davidson ALL apply).
3. NCAA Tournament 1st Round teams entering off back-to-back 15 point (or more) SU wins are a woeful 11-19 ATS. Play AGAINST Fullerton State, Memphis and Butler.
4. Favorites of -14.5 or less in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tournament are a woeful 7-22 ATS provided they enter off a 3-0 SU and ATS run (or better). Play AGAINST Pittsburgh, Drake and Butler. (Make that 0-8 ATS if our 1st Round favorite won by 17 points or more last: Drake).
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
College Hoops: Feeling the Pressure
It may be mid-March, but I am reminded of Game 7 of the 1988 NLCS between the Dodgers and Mets. The Mets had won 100 games, leading from wire to wire, and were expected to win the World Series. But they fumbled and bumbled Game 7 behind a slew of second-inning errors and lost the pennant 6-0 to the Dodgers. After the game, a baseball analyst wrote, "The Dodgers wanted to win Game 7. The Mets HAD to win it." His point was that the pressure was on the team that was expected to win. This is something to keep in mind the next few weeks with college basketball's tournament play taking place all around us.
Many teams will be heavy favorites in their conference tournaments and the NCAA tourney. But go back and look at the history -- the favored #1 seeds don't all meet in the Final Four, do they? In fact, you'll find countless examples of the top team getting knocked off in both the NCAA tourney and the conference play. Sometimes the pressure is all focused on the favored team, which feels it HAS to win. This can cause tightness and sloppy play with clubs that can't handle the extra focus now that it's a "new" season with the whole country tuned in.
It can be a breeze, for example, to win your final 10 regular season games playing against teams like Towson, James Madison and William & Mary, but all of a sudden the competition gets tougher AND you often play three games in three nights in March. That's quite a difference from putting it in cruise control as the regular season winds down.
Other times, there can be a bunch of very strong teams that finished second and third in the division laying in the weeds. The No. 1 seed gets all the attention, but the talented No. 2 and 3 seeded teams are waiting patiently, plotting for their turn -- with no focus on them -- to strike at the favorite.
If you look back at the regular season meetings, you might be surprised to find out how evenly the teams played. I had a play on big underdog Penn State when they played Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. In my pregame analysis I noted, "For some unknown reason the Illini have taken money all year without any merit. They are 12-18-1 ATS and have proven over and over again that they are a team that simply doesn't play up to its ability. On the season Illinois is 13-18 straight up while Penn State is 15-15. Yet the Illini are a substantial favorite here.
Maybe it has something to do with how they match up with the Nittany Lions? These two faced each other twice this season with Penn State winning both meetings. Just as expected the Nittany Lions were substantial underdogs in both meetings catching 5 and 8 points in the process. Maybe the reason why Illinois is favored is that they enter the conference tournament playing the far better ball? That's not it either as Illinois is on a 5-14 run while Penn State has won 12 of their last 23 games.
What is a legitimate reason for Illinois to be favored is that Penn State will be playing without forward Jamelle Cornley who averages 12 points and 6 rebounds a game. But the Nittany Lions just beat Indiana without him in the lineup. Is Penn State better with a healthy Cornley in the lineup? No doubt about it, but the generous point spread more than makes up for his absence. The underdog has cashed 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series and Penn State has cashed to the tune of 6-1-1 in those meetings. In what looks to be a low scoring game the underdog is a gift, play Penn State." The Lions got the money with ease in a 64-63 slow-down game.
Clearly, March tourney play is a very different time of the year. Some teams with veteran players who've been here before understand the changes and pressure. But other teams, young ones, or ones that are off poor seasons, might not have as much experience and be more likely to choke up or play sloppy ball when the games mean far more in importance. That's a big part of why upsets are so much a part of March tourney play.
This basketball season with top handicappers free basketball picks, college football picks and NBA basketball picks you are sure a winner. Remember to check out their editorial reviews for updates and insider look at this season's March Madness.
Many teams will be heavy favorites in their conference tournaments and the NCAA tourney. But go back and look at the history -- the favored #1 seeds don't all meet in the Final Four, do they? In fact, you'll find countless examples of the top team getting knocked off in both the NCAA tourney and the conference play. Sometimes the pressure is all focused on the favored team, which feels it HAS to win. This can cause tightness and sloppy play with clubs that can't handle the extra focus now that it's a "new" season with the whole country tuned in.
It can be a breeze, for example, to win your final 10 regular season games playing against teams like Towson, James Madison and William & Mary, but all of a sudden the competition gets tougher AND you often play three games in three nights in March. That's quite a difference from putting it in cruise control as the regular season winds down.
Other times, there can be a bunch of very strong teams that finished second and third in the division laying in the weeds. The No. 1 seed gets all the attention, but the talented No. 2 and 3 seeded teams are waiting patiently, plotting for their turn -- with no focus on them -- to strike at the favorite.
If you look back at the regular season meetings, you might be surprised to find out how evenly the teams played. I had a play on big underdog Penn State when they played Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. In my pregame analysis I noted, "For some unknown reason the Illini have taken money all year without any merit. They are 12-18-1 ATS and have proven over and over again that they are a team that simply doesn't play up to its ability. On the season Illinois is 13-18 straight up while Penn State is 15-15. Yet the Illini are a substantial favorite here.
Maybe it has something to do with how they match up with the Nittany Lions? These two faced each other twice this season with Penn State winning both meetings. Just as expected the Nittany Lions were substantial underdogs in both meetings catching 5 and 8 points in the process. Maybe the reason why Illinois is favored is that they enter the conference tournament playing the far better ball? That's not it either as Illinois is on a 5-14 run while Penn State has won 12 of their last 23 games.
What is a legitimate reason for Illinois to be favored is that Penn State will be playing without forward Jamelle Cornley who averages 12 points and 6 rebounds a game. But the Nittany Lions just beat Indiana without him in the lineup. Is Penn State better with a healthy Cornley in the lineup? No doubt about it, but the generous point spread more than makes up for his absence. The underdog has cashed 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series and Penn State has cashed to the tune of 6-1-1 in those meetings. In what looks to be a low scoring game the underdog is a gift, play Penn State." The Lions got the money with ease in a 64-63 slow-down game.
Clearly, March tourney play is a very different time of the year. Some teams with veteran players who've been here before understand the changes and pressure. But other teams, young ones, or ones that are off poor seasons, might not have as much experience and be more likely to choke up or play sloppy ball when the games mean far more in importance. That's a big part of why upsets are so much a part of March tourney play.
This basketball season with top handicappers free basketball picks, college football picks and NBA basketball picks you are sure a winner. Remember to check out their editorial reviews for updates and insider look at this season's March Madness.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
College Hoops Challenges in the Tourney
Last week I talked about the weird year that fans were witnessing in college basketball. It was as if we had "A" teams, and "C" teams, but nobody in between. If you watched the conference tournaments, you saw exactly what I was talking about. In fact, all the media could talk about on the first day of action was how all the mediocre bubble teams kept losing!
This odd class structure is going to create some challenges for handicappers who don't react to the changing times.
*There are several teams in the Dance who wouldn't have been good enough to make it in past seasons. It's surprising how many teams kind of backed in this year by default.
*There are also a few teams who were good a month ago, but are now playing their worst basketball of the season.
*There are some teams who won their way into the Dance by playing way over their heads last weekend. They're about to fall back to earth because you can't play over your head forever.
In a way that I don't recall ever seeing before, this is a year where picking winners is going to about focusing on the relatively small number of teams who can go out and execute on demand. A lot of offenses in the tournament have been blowing hot and cold lately. A lot of defenses in the tournament only seem to look good when opponents are missing all of their treys. Who can YOU find who will beat expectations because they will go out and get the job done?
Here are some tips:
*Look over conference tournament boxscores and find the teams that consistently played good defense. Some teams grabbed victories where they were allowing too high a shooting percentage, or not forcing many turnovers. Their luck will run out in the Dance. Impact defenses will force the action this week, and will make their own luck to a degree. Be sure to go back two weeks to study the mid-major events too. If darkhorses are going to spring from the gate...it's going to be darkhorses who play defense.
*As you're studying those boxscores, look at the offensive turnover category. I talked about this last week you'll recall. This is a great stat for evaluating how well a team executes its offense (or how poorly). In a possession by possession tournament game, this stat will often be the tie-breaker that determines who wins and covers. There's an old saw about how important great guard play is in the postseason. I tend to put more weight on the inside game myself. But, I do pay attention to guard play...and studying the turnover category is the best way to do that.
*Pay close attention to how teams are "trending" lately. Anybody can have a hot shooting game. If a team is playing well over 8-10 games, then they're much more likely to have something good going. If a team has slumped down the stretch, they're not likely to suddenly find their confidence in the Dance. This worked out well in the conference tournaments, as a few slumping teams continued their recent spirals. The oddsmakers have been particularly weak at adjusting to recent form in my opinion. I want to emphasize though that I'm not talking about the last 2-3 games here. Some teams played over their heads last week. I'm looking to invest in teams who have picked up the pace over their last 8-10 games.
Success in the conference tournaments was very much tied to execution on both sides of the ball, and the direction of recent form. I don't see why that's going to change now.
Of course, some tried and true methods will still apply:
*Be wary of laying a lot of points in the first round with any team who cut down the nets this past weekend. It can be hard to get up for a weak opponent in front of a half empty arena when you just had a draining string of performances capped by a big celebration. If one of the teams you respect because of offensive and defensive execution is in this situation, wait until deeper in the tournament to back them.
*Look to take strong teams who had their conference tournaments end earlier than expected. There are fewer of those this year than in the past. But you will still find some top teams with a chip on their shoulder. That's who you want to back in the first weekend. I'd say the BEST teams to take are those who have shown clear execution strength this season and also have that chip on their shoulders.
*Look to take Overs in games where up-tempo teams are playing each other. Tennessee and Long Beach State had a true track meet last season in that kind of matchup. The combination of fast tempo, tournament energy, and a 4-5 day layoff really energizes this kind of affair.
*Look to take Unders in games where slow-down teams are playing each other in afternoon tips. Some of the most boring games every year involve this kind of slow-motion meeting in a dead arena.
Proper handicapping is always a combination of applying time-proven approaches while having a a recognition of what's happening NOW. This will be more true than ever during the first week of the NCAA tournament.
The oddsmakers showed clear weakness in the conference tournaments trying to deal with the new dynamic I've discussed. They don't have it figured out yet!
Gathering only the top handicappers for this basketball season with their free basketball picks, college football picks and NBA basketball picks you are sure a winner. Remember to check out their editorial reviews for updates and insider look at this season March Madness.
This odd class structure is going to create some challenges for handicappers who don't react to the changing times.
*There are several teams in the Dance who wouldn't have been good enough to make it in past seasons. It's surprising how many teams kind of backed in this year by default.
*There are also a few teams who were good a month ago, but are now playing their worst basketball of the season.
*There are some teams who won their way into the Dance by playing way over their heads last weekend. They're about to fall back to earth because you can't play over your head forever.
In a way that I don't recall ever seeing before, this is a year where picking winners is going to about focusing on the relatively small number of teams who can go out and execute on demand. A lot of offenses in the tournament have been blowing hot and cold lately. A lot of defenses in the tournament only seem to look good when opponents are missing all of their treys. Who can YOU find who will beat expectations because they will go out and get the job done?
Here are some tips:
*Look over conference tournament boxscores and find the teams that consistently played good defense. Some teams grabbed victories where they were allowing too high a shooting percentage, or not forcing many turnovers. Their luck will run out in the Dance. Impact defenses will force the action this week, and will make their own luck to a degree. Be sure to go back two weeks to study the mid-major events too. If darkhorses are going to spring from the gate...it's going to be darkhorses who play defense.
*As you're studying those boxscores, look at the offensive turnover category. I talked about this last week you'll recall. This is a great stat for evaluating how well a team executes its offense (or how poorly). In a possession by possession tournament game, this stat will often be the tie-breaker that determines who wins and covers. There's an old saw about how important great guard play is in the postseason. I tend to put more weight on the inside game myself. But, I do pay attention to guard play...and studying the turnover category is the best way to do that.
*Pay close attention to how teams are "trending" lately. Anybody can have a hot shooting game. If a team is playing well over 8-10 games, then they're much more likely to have something good going. If a team has slumped down the stretch, they're not likely to suddenly find their confidence in the Dance. This worked out well in the conference tournaments, as a few slumping teams continued their recent spirals. The oddsmakers have been particularly weak at adjusting to recent form in my opinion. I want to emphasize though that I'm not talking about the last 2-3 games here. Some teams played over their heads last week. I'm looking to invest in teams who have picked up the pace over their last 8-10 games.
Success in the conference tournaments was very much tied to execution on both sides of the ball, and the direction of recent form. I don't see why that's going to change now.
Of course, some tried and true methods will still apply:
*Be wary of laying a lot of points in the first round with any team who cut down the nets this past weekend. It can be hard to get up for a weak opponent in front of a half empty arena when you just had a draining string of performances capped by a big celebration. If one of the teams you respect because of offensive and defensive execution is in this situation, wait until deeper in the tournament to back them.
*Look to take strong teams who had their conference tournaments end earlier than expected. There are fewer of those this year than in the past. But you will still find some top teams with a chip on their shoulder. That's who you want to back in the first weekend. I'd say the BEST teams to take are those who have shown clear execution strength this season and also have that chip on their shoulders.
*Look to take Overs in games where up-tempo teams are playing each other. Tennessee and Long Beach State had a true track meet last season in that kind of matchup. The combination of fast tempo, tournament energy, and a 4-5 day layoff really energizes this kind of affair.
*Look to take Unders in games where slow-down teams are playing each other in afternoon tips. Some of the most boring games every year involve this kind of slow-motion meeting in a dead arena.
Proper handicapping is always a combination of applying time-proven approaches while having a a recognition of what's happening NOW. This will be more true than ever during the first week of the NCAA tournament.
The oddsmakers showed clear weakness in the conference tournaments trying to deal with the new dynamic I've discussed. They don't have it figured out yet!
Gathering only the top handicappers for this basketball season with their free basketball picks, college football picks and NBA basketball picks you are sure a winner. Remember to check out their editorial reviews for updates and insider look at this season March Madness.
Monday, March 17, 2008
NBA Deadwood Packing it In
Last week I wrote about how the Rockets had won 18 in a row and it's best not to try and figure out when a hot team is going to cold. The smart handicapper rides the hot streaks. So what happened? Houston rips off 4 more wins in a row, going 3-1 against the spread. Again, if you tried to guess when the Rockets are going to go into a tailspin and wager against them, you would have continued to lose your shirt.
Now let's flip-flop that wagering advice into something just as practical, and profitable, this time of the season -- wagering against teams that have packed it in. The casual sports bettor often looks at favorites. But remember, wagering on live dogs or against bad teams that aren't going to cover pay the same as favorites that get there.
That's especially true as we come down the home stretch of the NBA regular season. This week Warriors coach Don Nelson said, "Welcome to the NBA. There are no bad teams in the NBA." Don was being diplomatic. The fact is there are a busload of bad teams. There are numerous squads that are going nowhere except the draft lottery. Take a careful look inside those squads. Are they a happy team? Do the players want to give 100% each night? Have they tuned out the coach? Are they playing for offseason contracts, rather than a team-oriented, winning attitude?
All of these questions should be on the lips of serious handicappers this time of the season. Let's take a look at the Seattle Supersonics. The Sonics had a brutal week, going 0-3 SU/ATS. The defense was a joke allowing 111, 121 and 168 points! The defense has been a problem for a while and they are riding a 7-2 run over the total. They've also lost 12 of 13 games.
Sunday's astounding 168-116 loss at Denver spoke volumes about their defensive interest, or should I say lack of. The Nuggets shot 60%, drilled 16 of 31 three- point attempts and fell just 16 points shy of the team record. That's even more incredible for those of you who remember the run-and-gun Doug Moe teams of the 1980s that didn't care a lick for defense. For the record, the previous team record for regulation points was 163 against San Antonio on Jan. 11, 1984. The Nuggets' franchise record for points came in a 186-184 triple-overtime loss to Detroit on Dec. 13, 1983. But that was a different era -- and a triple OT game!
Sunday, the SuperSonics gave up an NBA season-high 48 points in the first quarter and trailed by 19 after the first 12 minutes. The Nuggets set an NBA record with 49 fast-break points. "We get beat that badly, there's no excuse for that," Sonics coach P.J. Carlesimo said. "It matters a lot because we're professionals and we're trying to compete and we didn't compete." This is a situation to watch closely. Carlesimo is a screamer and already has a reputation for players tuning him out or turning on him. It's a situation that could offer a number of upcoming go-against spots.
And speaking of go-against spots, how about those LA Clippers? If the Titanic were an NBA team in 2008, it would be the Clippers. Sam Cassell has already abandoned ship. The Clippers appear to be going through the motions on a 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS run. In a 119-109 OT loss to Washington, the Clippers started their 29th lineup of the season and were fresh off losses by 22 and 24 points. Once regulation was over, the Clippers, in the fourth game of a five-game trip, had little left. Their only wins the last three weeks are against miserable Miami (by one point) and against the struggling Kings -- in OT.
The Grizzlies are another team that has packed in the season. Memphis has dropped 17 straight road games by an average margin of 13 points and has not won on the road since defeating Indiana on Jan. 2. Memphis is currently on a 1-13 SU, 2-12 ATS run overall.
Offering all the inside news and free basketball picks from POL. Get ready for this season's with our basketball picks.
Keep in mind that the Grizzlies recently have switched to the smallest lineup combination yet. Against Golden State, with center Darko Milicic out due to a sore right foot, coach Marc Iavaroni started point guards Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry alongside Mike Miller and Rudy Gay with Hakim Warrick at center. The Griz finished with Juan Carlos Navarro on the floor in place of Conley. That's a quick lineup, but a small, young one.
As long as we're talking about teams giving up on the season, you have to bring up the NY Knicks. The Knicks are on a 1-8 SU, 2-6-1 ATS run. They are also going with a youth movement. The team announced that Eddy Curry would have arthroscopic surgery on his knee that will probably sideline him for the rest of the season. On Sunday, the Knicks were without Quentin Richardson, who decided to rest his sore right wrist. That meant the Knicks' youngsters would again receive a hefty amount of playing time. Some of those minutes also came at the expense of a healthy Zach Randolph.
In Sunday's game, Randolph Morris finished with 8 points in 18 minutes, while Wilson Chandler (4 points), Renaldo Balkman (9 points) and Mardy Collins (7 points) also played significant minutes, a trend Isaiah Thomas said would continue as the season winds to a close. Another trend to keep tabs on is that the Knicks continue to be a terrible defensive team, at 12-4-1 over the total the last 17 games. This is a great time of the season for teams on the playoff bubble and for sports bettors to go against teams that have packed it in.
Now let's flip-flop that wagering advice into something just as practical, and profitable, this time of the season -- wagering against teams that have packed it in. The casual sports bettor often looks at favorites. But remember, wagering on live dogs or against bad teams that aren't going to cover pay the same as favorites that get there.
That's especially true as we come down the home stretch of the NBA regular season. This week Warriors coach Don Nelson said, "Welcome to the NBA. There are no bad teams in the NBA." Don was being diplomatic. The fact is there are a busload of bad teams. There are numerous squads that are going nowhere except the draft lottery. Take a careful look inside those squads. Are they a happy team? Do the players want to give 100% each night? Have they tuned out the coach? Are they playing for offseason contracts, rather than a team-oriented, winning attitude?
All of these questions should be on the lips of serious handicappers this time of the season. Let's take a look at the Seattle Supersonics. The Sonics had a brutal week, going 0-3 SU/ATS. The defense was a joke allowing 111, 121 and 168 points! The defense has been a problem for a while and they are riding a 7-2 run over the total. They've also lost 12 of 13 games.
Sunday's astounding 168-116 loss at Denver spoke volumes about their defensive interest, or should I say lack of. The Nuggets shot 60%, drilled 16 of 31 three- point attempts and fell just 16 points shy of the team record. That's even more incredible for those of you who remember the run-and-gun Doug Moe teams of the 1980s that didn't care a lick for defense. For the record, the previous team record for regulation points was 163 against San Antonio on Jan. 11, 1984. The Nuggets' franchise record for points came in a 186-184 triple-overtime loss to Detroit on Dec. 13, 1983. But that was a different era -- and a triple OT game!
Sunday, the SuperSonics gave up an NBA season-high 48 points in the first quarter and trailed by 19 after the first 12 minutes. The Nuggets set an NBA record with 49 fast-break points. "We get beat that badly, there's no excuse for that," Sonics coach P.J. Carlesimo said. "It matters a lot because we're professionals and we're trying to compete and we didn't compete." This is a situation to watch closely. Carlesimo is a screamer and already has a reputation for players tuning him out or turning on him. It's a situation that could offer a number of upcoming go-against spots.
And speaking of go-against spots, how about those LA Clippers? If the Titanic were an NBA team in 2008, it would be the Clippers. Sam Cassell has already abandoned ship. The Clippers appear to be going through the motions on a 2-11 SU, 3-10 ATS run. In a 119-109 OT loss to Washington, the Clippers started their 29th lineup of the season and were fresh off losses by 22 and 24 points. Once regulation was over, the Clippers, in the fourth game of a five-game trip, had little left. Their only wins the last three weeks are against miserable Miami (by one point) and against the struggling Kings -- in OT.
The Grizzlies are another team that has packed in the season. Memphis has dropped 17 straight road games by an average margin of 13 points and has not won on the road since defeating Indiana on Jan. 2. Memphis is currently on a 1-13 SU, 2-12 ATS run overall.
Offering all the inside news and free basketball picks from POL. Get ready for this season's with our basketball picks.
Keep in mind that the Grizzlies recently have switched to the smallest lineup combination yet. Against Golden State, with center Darko Milicic out due to a sore right foot, coach Marc Iavaroni started point guards Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry alongside Mike Miller and Rudy Gay with Hakim Warrick at center. The Griz finished with Juan Carlos Navarro on the floor in place of Conley. That's a quick lineup, but a small, young one.
As long as we're talking about teams giving up on the season, you have to bring up the NY Knicks. The Knicks are on a 1-8 SU, 2-6-1 ATS run. They are also going with a youth movement. The team announced that Eddy Curry would have arthroscopic surgery on his knee that will probably sideline him for the rest of the season. On Sunday, the Knicks were without Quentin Richardson, who decided to rest his sore right wrist. That meant the Knicks' youngsters would again receive a hefty amount of playing time. Some of those minutes also came at the expense of a healthy Zach Randolph.
In Sunday's game, Randolph Morris finished with 8 points in 18 minutes, while Wilson Chandler (4 points), Renaldo Balkman (9 points) and Mardy Collins (7 points) also played significant minutes, a trend Isaiah Thomas said would continue as the season winds to a close. Another trend to keep tabs on is that the Knicks continue to be a terrible defensive team, at 12-4-1 over the total the last 17 games. This is a great time of the season for teams on the playoff bubble and for sports bettors to go against teams that have packed it in.
Assessing NBA Injuries
Injuries are a part of all sports. For serious sports bettors, it's essential to keep a close eye on basketball injuries. That's especially true this time of the year, with college basketball tournaments in full swing and NBA teams fighting for division titles and postseason positioning. Injuries affect teams differently. This was evident with the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade is going to sit the rest of the season to rehab his left knee. A four-time All-Star, Wade will have missed 91 games to injuries during his five-year career. He will have missed at least 30 games to injuries each of the past two seasons. It's also the right move, as this is a lost season for the Heat.
All college basketball picks and basketball picks from top handicappers who knows best for this season's March Madness and NBA season.
Even through the injuries, Wade still was one of the most productive players in the league. He ranked fifth in scoring at 24.6 points a game and also averaged 6.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds in 51 games. It's not yet clear how this might influence Miami's spread marks. After the trade for Shawn Marion, Miami went small-ball with an uptempo attack, going 5-4-1 over the total after a 6-3 under run. It's essential to keep track of how injuries influence a team's style, as well as straight up wins and losses.
One team that hasn't been affected by a key injury is Houston, at least not yet. Houston lost star center Yao Ming after a 12-game win streak. Then they won another 7 in a row (7-0 ATS)! Clearly there is far more at work here than one star player.
Houston is motivated, one of the top teams in the West. They play magnificent defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA and tops in the West. When teams lose key players like this, be sure and look to see if they have something else to fall back on, like depth or defense. The Rockets also have outstanding role players and a second star player in Tracy McGrady.
The Rockets actually began their transformation in late December when McGrady missed 11 games due to a knee injury. They won seven of the first nine. From there a new team emerged, with Rafer Alston, rookie Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Shane Battier contributing. They stepped in when McGrady was out, and now they are doing it with Ming on the shelf.
Other times, teams aren't as well prepared. Since there are so few players in basketball as compared to football, the loss of any one player from the starting five means a 20% change in the lineup. This can affect not only offense or defense, but team chemistry, which takes months to develop. If a coach is counting on a role player to play defense and pull down nine rebounds a game, if that player is out he has to find someone else to plug in, which, depending on the bench, isn't always easy to do.
Think back a year ago when the Boston Celtics lost star Paul Pierce: The Green went on a horrendous 18-game losing streak. The Celtics won just two of 24 games when Pierce was out with foot and elbow injuries. Despite the long skid, the Celtics were installed as a 5-point favorite over Milwaukee the day Pierce came back. Many sports bettors were thinking, "How can a team that has lost 18 in a row be a 5-point chalk?" The Celtics fell behind 32-19, but ended up winning easily 117-97. The leading scorer? Pierce with 32 points.
As we saw with Houston, losing one player doesn't automatically mean that a team will fall apart. A team like Boston last season was extremely young, and fell apart when Pierce went down, the lone veteran and team leader. This season, the Celtics are far deeper and more experienced, with Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. When Garnett missed several weeks last month with a rib injury, the Celtics continued to play well.
People forget that a year ago the Houston Rockets lost Ming for ten weeks with a foot injury, yet played very good basketball and didn't fall apart. The Rockets still had McGrady and played outstanding defense under then Head Coach Jeff Van Gundy.
From a handicapping perspective, it's essential to examine each team's strengths and weaknesses and gauge how much they will miss, if at all, a key player. The Clippers, for instance, have been ravaged by injuries the last two seasons and have fallen apart. A year ago, point guard Shaun Livingston blew his knee out while veteran Sam Cassell was in and out of the lineup battling injuries.
Instead of a talented backcourt offering depth and flexibility, the Clippers were forced to start Cuttino Mobley and newcomer Jason Hart. The offense sputtered and the Clippers went on an 11-3-1 run under the total. This season the backcourt continued to have the same problems, while the frontcourt was decimated with the loss of Elton Brand. The Clippers have again been an under machine (37-24), especially at home where they started 21-12 under the total.
It's essential to study injury logs and keep track of who's playing and who's hurting when you analyze matchups. Some teams are deep and play good defense, which can help them survive injuries, while others can fall apart, both straight up and against the number.
All college basketball picks and basketball picks from top handicappers who knows best for this season's March Madness and NBA season.
Even through the injuries, Wade still was one of the most productive players in the league. He ranked fifth in scoring at 24.6 points a game and also averaged 6.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds in 51 games. It's not yet clear how this might influence Miami's spread marks. After the trade for Shawn Marion, Miami went small-ball with an uptempo attack, going 5-4-1 over the total after a 6-3 under run. It's essential to keep track of how injuries influence a team's style, as well as straight up wins and losses.
One team that hasn't been affected by a key injury is Houston, at least not yet. Houston lost star center Yao Ming after a 12-game win streak. Then they won another 7 in a row (7-0 ATS)! Clearly there is far more at work here than one star player.
Houston is motivated, one of the top teams in the West. They play magnificent defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA and tops in the West. When teams lose key players like this, be sure and look to see if they have something else to fall back on, like depth or defense. The Rockets also have outstanding role players and a second star player in Tracy McGrady.
The Rockets actually began their transformation in late December when McGrady missed 11 games due to a knee injury. They won seven of the first nine. From there a new team emerged, with Rafer Alston, rookie Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Shane Battier contributing. They stepped in when McGrady was out, and now they are doing it with Ming on the shelf.
Other times, teams aren't as well prepared. Since there are so few players in basketball as compared to football, the loss of any one player from the starting five means a 20% change in the lineup. This can affect not only offense or defense, but team chemistry, which takes months to develop. If a coach is counting on a role player to play defense and pull down nine rebounds a game, if that player is out he has to find someone else to plug in, which, depending on the bench, isn't always easy to do.
Think back a year ago when the Boston Celtics lost star Paul Pierce: The Green went on a horrendous 18-game losing streak. The Celtics won just two of 24 games when Pierce was out with foot and elbow injuries. Despite the long skid, the Celtics were installed as a 5-point favorite over Milwaukee the day Pierce came back. Many sports bettors were thinking, "How can a team that has lost 18 in a row be a 5-point chalk?" The Celtics fell behind 32-19, but ended up winning easily 117-97. The leading scorer? Pierce with 32 points.
As we saw with Houston, losing one player doesn't automatically mean that a team will fall apart. A team like Boston last season was extremely young, and fell apart when Pierce went down, the lone veteran and team leader. This season, the Celtics are far deeper and more experienced, with Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. When Garnett missed several weeks last month with a rib injury, the Celtics continued to play well.
People forget that a year ago the Houston Rockets lost Ming for ten weeks with a foot injury, yet played very good basketball and didn't fall apart. The Rockets still had McGrady and played outstanding defense under then Head Coach Jeff Van Gundy.
From a handicapping perspective, it's essential to examine each team's strengths and weaknesses and gauge how much they will miss, if at all, a key player. The Clippers, for instance, have been ravaged by injuries the last two seasons and have fallen apart. A year ago, point guard Shaun Livingston blew his knee out while veteran Sam Cassell was in and out of the lineup battling injuries.
Instead of a talented backcourt offering depth and flexibility, the Clippers were forced to start Cuttino Mobley and newcomer Jason Hart. The offense sputtered and the Clippers went on an 11-3-1 run under the total. This season the backcourt continued to have the same problems, while the frontcourt was decimated with the loss of Elton Brand. The Clippers have again been an under machine (37-24), especially at home where they started 21-12 under the total.
It's essential to study injury logs and keep track of who's playing and who's hurting when you analyze matchups. Some teams are deep and play good defense, which can help them survive injuries, while others can fall apart, both straight up and against the number.
Tom Stryker's Conference Tournament Money-Maker
On Wednesday, March 12th, college basketball's major conferences will tip off their annual post season tournaments. This is the perfect appetizer to the Big Dance and this five-day hardwood run can provide all of us with excellent wagering opportunities.
Thanks to my powerful hoops database, I've been able to grind out a nice profit in March Madness over the years. A great deal of my winnings has come in the first round (or donkey round) of the tournament. Some of the conference's worst teams can be found at this stage of the game and, under the right set of circumstances, fading these bottom feeders can lead us to the cash.
Let's take a look at one specific system that goes against these conference losers. Since the 1990-91 season, sub .500 first round (or donkey round) teams are a dismal 35-55 ATS provided they're matched up against an opponent that enters off back-to-back straight up wins. Remember, momentum in college basketball can be an effective handicapping tool. In this situation, our "play against" bottom-feeder struggles to meet the emotional and physical challenge that their opponent provides. At press time, there are two potential teams stuck in this dismal situation: Bowling Green and Rice.
There are a couple of ways to tighten this system up and make it even more lucrative. With our 33-55 ATS set in hand and our "play against" side off a straight up loss and priced as an underdog or pick, this system crashes to a horrendous 16-39 ATS! We already have a bad team on the court. Things get even worse when our "loser" enters without momentum off a straight up loss. Both the Falcons and the Owls apply to this important tightener.
There is one additional parameter that can be added to this system that really makes it pop. With our 16-39 ATS tally on the board and our "play against" side is facing an opponent that is seeded at No. 5 or lower, this system dips to a dismal 5-25 ATS! Rice is the only team that fits this nearly perfect tightener.
Good luck with Southern Mississippi on Wednesday night and be sure to check back next week for an inside look at the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
College Basketball picks and Free Basketball picks from the top handicappers at VOS
Thanks to my powerful hoops database, I've been able to grind out a nice profit in March Madness over the years. A great deal of my winnings has come in the first round (or donkey round) of the tournament. Some of the conference's worst teams can be found at this stage of the game and, under the right set of circumstances, fading these bottom feeders can lead us to the cash.
Let's take a look at one specific system that goes against these conference losers. Since the 1990-91 season, sub .500 first round (or donkey round) teams are a dismal 35-55 ATS provided they're matched up against an opponent that enters off back-to-back straight up wins. Remember, momentum in college basketball can be an effective handicapping tool. In this situation, our "play against" bottom-feeder struggles to meet the emotional and physical challenge that their opponent provides. At press time, there are two potential teams stuck in this dismal situation: Bowling Green and Rice.
There are a couple of ways to tighten this system up and make it even more lucrative. With our 33-55 ATS set in hand and our "play against" side off a straight up loss and priced as an underdog or pick, this system crashes to a horrendous 16-39 ATS! We already have a bad team on the court. Things get even worse when our "loser" enters without momentum off a straight up loss. Both the Falcons and the Owls apply to this important tightener.
There is one additional parameter that can be added to this system that really makes it pop. With our 16-39 ATS tally on the board and our "play against" side is facing an opponent that is seeded at No. 5 or lower, this system dips to a dismal 5-25 ATS! Rice is the only team that fits this nearly perfect tightener.
Good luck with Southern Mississippi on Wednesday night and be sure to check back next week for an inside look at the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
College Basketball picks and Free Basketball picks from the top handicappers at VOS
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
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