Assessing NBA Injuries

Injuries are a part of all sports. For serious sports bettors, it's essential to keep a close eye on basketball injuries. That's especially true this time of the year, with college basketball tournaments in full swing and NBA teams fighting for division titles and postseason positioning. Injuries affect teams differently. This was evident with the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade is going to sit the rest of the season to rehab his left knee. A four-time All-Star, Wade will have missed 91 games to injuries during his five-year career. He will have missed at least 30 games to injuries each of the past two seasons. It's also the right move, as this is a lost season for the Heat.

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Even through the injuries, Wade still was one of the most productive players in the league. He ranked fifth in scoring at 24.6 points a game and also averaged 6.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds in 51 games. It's not yet clear how this might influence Miami's spread marks. After the trade for Shawn Marion, Miami went small-ball with an uptempo attack, going 5-4-1 over the total after a 6-3 under run. It's essential to keep track of how injuries influence a team's style, as well as straight up wins and losses.

One team that hasn't been affected by a key injury is Houston, at least not yet. Houston lost star center Yao Ming after a 12-game win streak. Then they won another 7 in a row (7-0 ATS)! Clearly there is far more at work here than one star player.

Houston is motivated, one of the top teams in the West. They play magnificent defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA and tops in the West. When teams lose key players like this, be sure and look to see if they have something else to fall back on, like depth or defense. The Rockets also have outstanding role players and a second star player in Tracy McGrady.

The Rockets actually began their transformation in late December when McGrady missed 11 games due to a knee injury. They won seven of the first nine. From there a new team emerged, with Rafer Alston, rookie Luis Scola, Carl Landry and Shane Battier contributing. They stepped in when McGrady was out, and now they are doing it with Ming on the shelf.

Other times, teams aren't as well prepared. Since there are so few players in basketball as compared to football, the loss of any one player from the starting five means a 20% change in the lineup. This can affect not only offense or defense, but team chemistry, which takes months to develop. If a coach is counting on a role player to play defense and pull down nine rebounds a game, if that player is out he has to find someone else to plug in, which, depending on the bench, isn't always easy to do.

Think back a year ago when the Boston Celtics lost star Paul Pierce: The Green went on a horrendous 18-game losing streak. The Celtics won just two of 24 games when Pierce was out with foot and elbow injuries. Despite the long skid, the Celtics were installed as a 5-point favorite over Milwaukee the day Pierce came back. Many sports bettors were thinking, "How can a team that has lost 18 in a row be a 5-point chalk?" The Celtics fell behind 32-19, but ended up winning easily 117-97. The leading scorer? Pierce with 32 points.

As we saw with Houston, losing one player doesn't automatically mean that a team will fall apart. A team like Boston last season was extremely young, and fell apart when Pierce went down, the lone veteran and team leader. This season, the Celtics are far deeper and more experienced, with Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. When Garnett missed several weeks last month with a rib injury, the Celtics continued to play well.

People forget that a year ago the Houston Rockets lost Ming for ten weeks with a foot injury, yet played very good basketball and didn't fall apart. The Rockets still had McGrady and played outstanding defense under then Head Coach Jeff Van Gundy.

From a handicapping perspective, it's essential to examine each team's strengths and weaknesses and gauge how much they will miss, if at all, a key player. The Clippers, for instance, have been ravaged by injuries the last two seasons and have fallen apart. A year ago, point guard Shaun Livingston blew his knee out while veteran Sam Cassell was in and out of the lineup battling injuries.

Instead of a talented backcourt offering depth and flexibility, the Clippers were forced to start Cuttino Mobley and newcomer Jason Hart. The offense sputtered and the Clippers went on an 11-3-1 run under the total. This season the backcourt continued to have the same problems, while the frontcourt was decimated with the loss of Elton Brand. The Clippers have again been an under machine (37-24), especially at home where they started 21-12 under the total.

It's essential to study injury logs and keep track of who's playing and who's hurting when you analyze matchups. Some teams are deep and play good defense, which can help them survive injuries, while others can fall apart, both straight up and against the number.