Monday, November 26, 2007

NBA Early Season Surprises

NBA Predictions courtesy of Jim Feist.com

Preseason prognosticators and handicapping analysis focuses in on what they expect to happen, based on the draft and offseason moves, but there are always surprises at the start of each season. Here's a look at some of the early pleasant surprises of the NBA season.

Celtics: On paper, it doesn't take a lot of moves to go from worst to first in the weak East. Boston is putting this to the test after making the most waves in the offseason. GM Danny Ainge basically shipped out a truckload of kids with potential to bring established veterans Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to play alongside Paul Pierce. They were expected to be very good, but they've been even better.

I had the Celtics as my Game of the Week the first week of the season. In their home opener, with great fanfare, they destroyed Washington 103-83, covering by double-digits. That was the start of an 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS beginning to the season. Reports are that Pierce, Garnett and Allen like each other and get along on and off the court. Perhaps most impressive is their team defense: Boston allows 41% shooting by opponents, tops in the NBA. They started 5-2 under the total, as well.

Magic: Orlando is also playing defense, just behind Boston in the East allowing 42% shooting. They also have been beasts on the road, starting 7-0 SU/ATS, and a sizzling 5-1 SU/ATS as a dog. What gives? It's a very different team. Orlando hired Stan Van Gundy as coach meaning the Magic would emphasize defense. The club acquired Rashard Lewis as a $118-million free agent and recently made a trade for power forward Brian Cook and guard Maurice Evans from the Lakers.

Lewis is getting his 20 ppg, but the main man up front is 6-11 Dwight Howard, who turns 22 in December. He came to camp ready to play and is leading the team with over 22 points and 14 boards per game. It's not difficult to picture MVP trophies in this kid's future.

Bobcats: The young Charlotte Bobcats have excellent building blocks with Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton and Emaka Okafur. Into this mix they added Jason Richardson from the Warriors and the results have been very good. Offense was a problem last season, and still is, which is why they traded for Richardson. Most impressive, though, has been the defense, allowing 93 ppg. Charlotte started 7-3 under the total. Many young teams often begin to play better at home but it takes a while before they learn to win on the road. Keep in mind that the Bobcats started 5-2 SU/ATS at home, but 1-2 SU/ATS on the road.

Nuggets: Two things are surprising about the Denver Nuggets. One is that they got off to a fast start despite having many of the same injuries as a year ago. Anthony Carter, Chucky Atkins, Nene Hilario and Steven Hunter are out of action and often-injured Kenyon Martin is hobbling again. There are no secrets with this team: They run like crazy behind Carmelo Anthony (25 ppg) and Allen Iverson (24.5 ppg). This is the highest scoring team in the NBA.

The other surprise is that they are playing defense. George Karl has been on his players in practice about playing tough defense, and on the court the results are there. Denver allows opponents 43% shooting - only the Lakers are better in the West. That old Mile High altitude advantage appears to have returned: Denver started 4-1 SU/ATS at home.

New Orleans: This is a talented young team, led by Chris Paul (19 ppg, 10.8 apg) and David West (19 ppg). They have two stars, two young role players in backboard machine Tyson Chandler and Morris Peterson, plus an old veteran in Peja Stojakovic, who thus far is healthy. Most impressive about this group is the defense, allowing 91 ppg. New Orleans started 8-4 under the total.

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